Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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The Baillie Gifford Japan Trust PLC (BGFD.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.64 - $3.81$3.21
Multi-Stage$4.48 - $4.91$4.69
Blended Fair Value$3.95
Current Price$7.67
Upside-48.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS75.69%0.00%0.100.090.060.050.040.010.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--8.68%48.87%36.91%27.79%491.41%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.35%1.28%0.82%0.45%0.44%0.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.614.132.48
Cash Retained (M)15.4015.4015.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.61-4.13-2.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.7911.2712.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)89.4889.4889.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate8.96%8.96%8.96%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.64$3.21$3.81
Upside / Downside-65.56%-58.13%-50.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.0432.7132.3832.0631.7431.4232.36
Payout Ratio53.39%60.71%68.03%75.36%82.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.6419.8622.0324.1626.2428.2829.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.96%8.96%8.96%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)18.0418.2218.41
Year 2 PV (M)18.1818.5618.93
Year 3 PV (M)18.1118.6719.25
Year 4 PV (M)17.8818.6219.38
Year 5 PV (M)17.5018.4119.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)310.94327.13343.99
Equity Value (M)400.65419.62439.32
Shares Outstanding (M)89.4889.4889.48
Fair Value$4.48$4.69$4.91
Upside / Downside-41.62%-38.86%-35.99%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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