DDM Analysis: AXP

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$302.44 - $679.46	$438.10
Multi-Stage	$217.22 - $237.26	$227.06
Blended Fair Value	$332.58
Current Price	$332.16
Upside	0.13%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	7.05%	6.74%	2.86	2.54	2.24	2.07	2.11	2.03	1.89	1.79	1.73	1.68
YoY Growth	-	-	12.30%	13.74%	8.08%	-1.76%	3.66%	7.40%	5.84%	3.65%	2.99%	12.58%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.06%	1.12%	1.36%	1.11%	1.49%	2.37%	1.69%	1.92%	2.18%	2.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	10,541.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,198.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	8,343.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,108.20	1,317.63	790.58
Cash Retained (M)	8,343.00	8,343.00	8,343.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,108.20	-1,317.63	-790.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)	6,234.80	7,025.38	7,552.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	699.50	699.50	699.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share	8.91	10.04	10.80
LTM Dividend per Share	3.14	3.14	3.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share	8.91	10.04	10.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend	12.06	13.19	13.94
WACC / Discount Rate	9.71%	9.71%	9.71%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$302.44	$438.10	$679.46
Upside / Downside	-8.95%	31.89%	104.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	10,541.00	11,226.17	11,955.87	12,733.00	13,560.64	14,442.08	14,875.35
Payout Ratio	20.85%	34.68%	48.51%	62.34%	76.17%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,198.00	3,893.41	5,799.93	7,937.85	10,329.19	12,997.88	13,759.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.71%	9.71%	9.71%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,515.64	3,548.97	3,582.29
Year 2 PV (M)	4,729.04	4,819.11	4,910.04
Year 3 PV (M)	5,844.24	6,012.00	6,182.95
Year 4 PV (M)	6,866.99	7,131.08	7,402.71
Year 5 PV (M)	7,802.75	8,179.62	8,570.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)	123,186.20	129,136.14	135,313.80
Equity Value (M)	151,944.86	158,826.92	165,962.71
Shares Outstanding (M)	699.50	699.50	699.50
Fair Value	$217.22	$227.06	$237.26
Upside / Downside	-34.60%	-31.64%	-28.57%

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American Express Company (AXP)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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