Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Avia Avian Tbk (AVIA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$363.91 - $636.94$480.34
Multi-Stage$664.20 - $728.72$695.84
Blended Fair Value$588.09
Current Price$408.00
Upside44.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS2.36%0.00%22.1222.3618.3038.5611.4919.690.0019.750.000.00
YoY Growth---1.09%22.22%-52.55%235.71%-41.67%199,999,900.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.45%4.07%3.08%4.94%1.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,693,711.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,337,793.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)355,918.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)338,742.20211,713.88127,028.33
Cash Retained (M)355,918.00355,918.00355,918.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-338,742.20-211,713.88-127,028.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)17,175.80144,204.13228,889.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)60,948.3060,948.3060,948.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.282.373.76
LTM Dividend per Share21.9521.9521.95
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.282.373.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend22.2324.3225.71
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate0.36%1.36%2.36%
Fair Value$363.91$480.34$636.94
Upside / Downside-10.81%17.73%56.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,693,711.001,716,668.031,739,936.231,763,519.811,787,423.061,811,650.291,865,999.80
Payout Ratio78.99%81.19%83.39%85.59%87.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,337,793.001,393,740.901,450,959.691,509,473.551,569,307.061,630,485.261,726,049.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate0.36%1.36%2.36%
Year 1 PV (M)1,295,933.091,308,846.521,321,759.96
Year 2 PV (M)1,254,458.841,279,583.721,304,957.71
Year 3 PV (M)1,213,464.591,250,102.271,287,470.07
Year 4 PV (M)1,173,032.561,220,491.171,269,375.49
Year 5 PV (M)1,133,233.871,190,831.381,250,747.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,411,525.9436,160,518.8737,979,914.89
Equity Value (M)40,481,648.9042,410,373.9344,414,225.51
Shares Outstanding (M)60,948.3060,948.3060,948.30
Fair Value$664.20$695.84$728.72
Upside / Downside62.79%70.55%78.61%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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