Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Alliance Witan Ord (ALW.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.62 - $31.68$25.77
Multi-Stage$26.32 - $28.84$27.55
Blended Fair Value$26.66
Current Price$12.22
Upside118.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.49%3.01%0.250.210.210.160.140.140.140.140.200.23
YoY Growth--15.46%0.41%34.94%13.26%1.66%0.46%-5.34%-27.46%-13.59%25.27%
Dividend Yield--1.98%1.93%2.24%1.52%1.54%1.63%1.98%1.92%3.11%4.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)734.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)173.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)561.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)146.9591.8555.11
Cash Retained (M)561.31561.31561.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-146.95-91.85-55.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)414.35469.46506.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)334.78334.78334.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.241.401.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.241.401.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.761.922.03
WACC / Discount Rate9.61%9.61%9.61%
Growth Rate1.01%2.01%3.01%
Fair Value$20.62$25.77$31.68
Upside / Downside68.72%110.88%159.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)734.77749.53764.58779.93795.60811.57835.92
Payout Ratio23.61%36.89%50.16%63.44%76.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)173.47276.47383.55494.82610.40730.42773.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.61%9.61%9.61%
Growth Rate1.01%2.01%3.01%
Year 1 PV (M)249.76252.23254.71
Year 2 PV (M)313.01319.24325.53
Year 3 PV (M)364.80375.74386.90
Year 4 PV (M)406.53422.87439.70
Year 5 PV (M)439.46461.65484.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,037.807,393.157,762.70
Equity Value (M)8,811.379,224.899,654.27
Shares Outstanding (M)334.78334.78334.78
Fair Value$26.32$27.55$28.84
Upside / Downside115.38%125.49%135.98%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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