Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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TXCOM Group (ALTXC.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.54 - $11.50$9.40
Multi-Stage$15.86 - $17.46$16.64
Blended Fair Value$13.02
Current Price$9.35
Upside39.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.300.350.160.000.300.160.240.240.24
YoY Growth---100.00%-14.20%117.81%0.00%-100.00%87.50%-33.33%0.00%0.00%198.63%
Dividend Yield--0.00%2.55%3.90%1.81%0.00%3.74%3.51%4.20%3.42%3.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.210.130.08
Cash Retained (M)0.680.680.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.21-0.13-0.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.470.550.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.241.241.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.380.450.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.380.450.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.750.79
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.54$9.40$11.50
Upside / Downside-19.33%0.49%22.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1.051.041.031.021.011.001.03
Payout Ratio35.01%46.01%57.01%68.00%79.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.370.480.590.690.800.900.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)0.440.450.45
Year 2 PV (M)0.500.510.53
Year 3 PV (M)0.550.570.59
Year 4 PV (M)0.590.610.64
Year 5 PV (M)0.610.650.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)16.8917.7718.69
Equity Value (M)19.6020.5621.57
Shares Outstanding (M)1.241.241.24
Fair Value$15.86$16.64$17.46
Upside / Downside69.64%78.02%86.73%

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