Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

AGCO Corporation (AGCO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$68.75 - $121.21$91.01
Multi-Stage$70.70 - $77.37$73.98
Blended Fair Value$82.49
Current Price$107.07
Upside-22.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS41.58%20.94%3.666.125.414.800.640.640.630.600.570.56
YoY Growth---40.29%13.13%12.78%646.88%0.00%1.91%5.84%4.71%1.19%2.94%
Dividend Yield--3.95%5.08%4.00%3.29%0.45%1.36%0.90%0.92%0.95%1.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)375.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)86.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)288.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)75.0646.9128.15
Cash Retained (M)288.80288.80288.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-75.06-46.91-28.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)213.74241.89260.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)74.7074.7074.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.863.243.49
LTM Dividend per Share1.161.161.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.863.243.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.024.404.65
WACC / Discount Rate9.26%9.26%9.26%
Growth Rate3.22%4.22%5.22%
Fair Value$68.75$91.01$121.21
Upside / Downside-35.79%-15.00%13.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)375.30391.15407.66424.87442.81461.51475.35
Payout Ratio23.05%36.44%49.83%63.22%76.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)86.50142.53203.13268.60339.23415.35439.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.26%9.26%9.26%
Growth Rate3.22%4.22%5.22%
Year 1 PV (M)129.20130.45131.70
Year 2 PV (M)166.92170.17173.45
Year 3 PV (M)200.08205.95211.94
Year 4 PV (M)229.07238.08247.35
Year 5 PV (M)254.24266.80279.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,302.024,514.494,735.26
Equity Value (M)5,281.545,525.945,779.55
Shares Outstanding (M)74.7074.7074.70
Fair Value$70.70$73.98$77.37
Upside / Downside-33.97%-30.91%-27.74%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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