Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Great China Metal Ind. Co., Ltd. (9905.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.48 - $22.85$18.31
Multi-Stage$33.26 - $36.56$34.88
Blended Fair Value$26.59
Current Price$22.90
Upside16.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.92%-5.80%1.091.191.491.491.001.001.691.491.491.99
YoY Growth---8.33%-20.00%0.00%50.00%0.00%-41.18%13.33%0.00%-25.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.69%4.97%5.90%5.52%3.95%5.03%6.77%5.65%5.72%7.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)446.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)335.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)110.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)89.2655.7833.47
Cash Retained (M)110.78110.78110.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-89.26-55.78-33.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)21.5254.9977.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)306.49306.49306.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.180.25
LTM Dividend per Share1.091.091.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.180.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.161.271.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-1.60%-0.60%0.40%
Fair Value$14.48$18.31$22.85
Upside / Downside-36.78%-20.06%-0.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)446.28443.60440.93438.28435.65433.03446.02
Payout Ratio75.18%78.14%81.11%84.07%87.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)335.50346.63357.62368.47379.17389.73412.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-1.60%-0.60%0.40%
Year 1 PV (M)322.76326.04329.32
Year 2 PV (M)310.05316.39322.79
Year 3 PV (M)297.45306.61315.96
Year 4 PV (M)285.01296.77308.90
Year 5 PV (M)272.77286.91301.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,705.849,157.309,627.29
Equity Value (M)10,193.8810,690.0211,205.89
Shares Outstanding (M)306.49306.49306.49
Fair Value$33.26$34.88$36.56
Upside / Downside45.24%52.31%59.66%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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