Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Alwasail Industrial Company (9525.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.08 - $12.74$7.63
Multi-Stage$6.24 - $6.84$6.53
Blended Fair Value$7.08
Current Price$3.77
Upside87.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS26.80%0.00%0.150.000.050.000.000.050.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.98%0.00%2.76%0.00%0.00%1.84%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)58.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.717.324.39
Cash Retained (M)8.568.568.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.71-7.32-4.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)-3.151.244.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)251.16251.16251.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.200.22
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate2.71%3.71%4.71%
Fair Value$5.08$7.63$12.74
Upside / Downside34.69%102.39%237.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)58.5660.7462.9965.3367.7570.2772.38
Payout Ratio85.38%86.31%87.23%88.15%89.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.0052.4254.9557.5960.3563.2466.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate2.71%3.71%4.71%
Year 1 PV (M)48.7549.2249.70
Year 2 PV (M)47.5348.4649.39
Year 3 PV (M)46.3347.6949.09
Year 4 PV (M)45.1546.9448.78
Year 5 PV (M)44.0146.1948.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,336.281,402.601,471.54
Equity Value (M)1,568.041,641.111,716.96
Shares Outstanding (M)251.16251.16251.16
Fair Value$6.24$6.53$6.84
Upside / Downside65.60%73.32%81.33%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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