DDM Analysis: 7181.T

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1,877.60 - $2,539.05	$2,215.99
Multi-Stage	$5,447.21 - $6,039.10	$5,736.90
Blended Fair Value	$3,976.45
Current Price	$4,193.00
Upside	-5.16%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-10.08%	8.48%	100.56	94.43	95.14	160.84	56.69	171.06	108.13	95.39	88.98	65.02
YoY Growth	-	-	6.49%	-0.75%	-40.85%	183.72%	-66.86%	58.20%	13.36%	7.21%	36.85%	45.92%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.08%	3.00%	4.39%	7.41%	2.76%	12.11%	5.41%	4.19%	3.59%	3.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	154,447.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	37,933.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	116,514.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	30,889.40	19,305.88	11,583.53
Cash Retained (M)	116,514.00	116,514.00	116,514.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-30,889.40	-19,305.88	-11,583.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)	85,624.60	97,208.13	104,930.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	377.22	377.22	377.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share	226.99	257.70	278.17
LTM Dividend per Share	100.56	100.56	100.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share	226.99	257.70	278.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend	327.55	358.26	378.73
WACC / Discount Rate	6.74%	6.74%	6.74%
Growth Rate	-9.12%	-8.12%	-7.12%
Fair Value	$1,877.60	$2,215.99	$2,539.05
Upside / Downside	-55.22%	-47.15%	-39.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	154,447.00	141,907.64	130,386.34	119,800.44	110,073.99	101,137.23	104,171.34
Payout Ratio	24.56%	37.65%	50.74%	63.82%	76.91%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	37,933.00	53,425.99	66,153.23	76,461.69	84,660.23	91,023.50	96,358.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.74%	6.74%	6.74%
Growth Rate	-9.12%	-8.12%	-7.12%
Year 1 PV (M)	49,509.83	50,054.61	50,599.39
Year 2 PV (M)	56,810.53	58,067.62	59,338.47
Year 3 PV (M)	60,849.99	62,880.85	64,956.39
Year 4 PV (M)	62,435.99	65,229.71	68,116.15
Year 5 PV (M)	62,208.25	65,706.91	69,361.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,762,977.85	1,862,129.60	1,965,693.12
Equity Value (M)	2,054,792.45	2,164,069.29	2,278,064.76
Shares Outstanding (M)	377.22	377.22	377.22
Fair Value	$5,447.21	$5,736.90	$6,039.10
Upside / Downside	29.91%	36.82%	44.03%

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Financial Statements

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Japan Post Insurance Co., Ltd. (7181.T)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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