Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.,Ltd. (605499.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$943.99 - $1,675.19$1,569.90
Multi-Stage$268.03 - $293.35$280.46
Blended Fair Value$925.18
Current Price$303.80
Upside204.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS68.52%0.00%3.941.541.151.151.070.290.130.070.000.00
YoY Growth--156.40%33.33%0.00%7.84%268.65%122.35%74.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.58%1.07%0.78%1.12%2.09%0.57%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,380.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,055.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,325.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)876.05547.53328.52
Cash Retained (M)2,325.022,325.022,325.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-876.05-547.53-328.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,448.981,777.491,996.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)520.01520.01520.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.793.423.84
LTM Dividend per Share3.953.953.95
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.793.423.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.747.377.79
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$943.99$1,569.90$1,675.19
Upside / Downside210.73%416.75%451.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,380.244,664.964,968.185,291.115,635.036,001.316,181.35
Payout Ratio46.92%55.54%64.15%72.77%81.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,055.222,590.743,187.193,850.244,586.025,401.185,717.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,415.372,438.272,461.16
Year 2 PV (M)2,770.322,823.092,876.35
Year 3 PV (M)3,120.123,209.693,300.95
Year 4 PV (M)3,464.823,598.063,735.12
Year 5 PV (M)3,804.473,988.234,179.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)123,803.04129,782.78135,991.37
Equity Value (M)139,378.15145,840.11152,543.97
Shares Outstanding (M)520.01520.01520.01
Fair Value$268.03$280.46$293.35
Upside / Downside-11.77%-7.68%-3.44%

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