DDM Analysis: 603993.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$20.92 - $53.07	$31.55
Multi-Stage	$14.69 - $16.03	$15.35
Blended Fair Value	$23.45
Current Price	$15.70
Upside	49.35%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	10.40%	21.61%	0.33	0.30	0.23	0.12	0.12	0.20	0.13	0.09	0.04	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	9.94%	30.86%	96.74%	-7.64%	-37.26%	58.84%	47.02%	90.09%	-28.99%	36.86%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.30%	3.60%	3.79%	2.21%	2.37%	5.74%	2.53%	1.01%	0.95%	1.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	19,538.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	6,739.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)	12,799.02

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3,907.75	2,442.35	1,465.41
Cash Retained (M)	12,799.02	12,799.02	12,799.02
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3,907.75	-2,442.35	-1,465.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)	8,891.27	10,356.68	11,333.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	21,108.20	21,108.20	21,108.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.42	0.49	0.54
LTM Dividend per Share	0.32	0.32	0.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.42	0.49	0.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.74	0.81	0.86
WACC / Discount Rate	9.23%	9.23%	9.23%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$20.92	$31.55	$53.07
Upside / Downside	33.25%	100.94%	238.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	19,538.77	20,808.79	22,161.37	23,601.86	25,135.98	26,769.81	27,572.91
Payout Ratio	34.49%	45.60%	56.70%	67.80%	78.90%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	6,739.75	9,487.85	12,564.73	16,001.51	19,832.00	24,092.83	25,504.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.23%	9.23%	9.23%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	8,604.23	8,685.78	8,767.34
Year 2 PV (M)	10,333.35	10,530.17	10,728.85
Year 3 PV (M)	11,934.19	12,276.78	12,625.86
Year 4 PV (M)	13,413.50	13,929.35	14,459.93
Year 5 PV (M)	14,777.73	15,491.50	16,232.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)	250,933.48	263,053.66	275,637.71
Equity Value (M)	309,996.47	323,967.24	338,452.27
Shares Outstanding (M)	21,108.20	21,108.20	21,108.20
Fair Value	$14.69	$15.35	$16.03
Upside / Downside	-6.46%	-2.24%	2.13%

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Financial Statements

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CMOC Group Limited (603993.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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