DDM Analysis: 603787.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.23 - $3.38	$2.77
Multi-Stage	$2.93 - $3.20	$3.06
Blended Fair Value	$2.92
Current Price	$12.10
Upside	-75.90%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-1.67%	11.85%	0.20	0.44	0.04	0.22	0.11	0.22	0.11	0.00	0.16	0.13
YoY Growth	-	-	-54.03%	900.00%	-80.00%	108.33%	-52.00%	108.33%	0.00%	-100.00%	25.00%	100.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.88%	3.70%	0.21%	1.61%	0.49%	1.94%	0.88%	0.00%	1.88%	1.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	58.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	23.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)	34.54

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	11.68	7.30	4.38
Cash Retained (M)	34.54	34.54	34.54
(-) Cash Required (M)	-11.68	-7.30	-4.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)	22.85	27.23	30.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	232.25	232.25	232.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.12	0.13
LTM Dividend per Share	0.10	0.10	0.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.12	0.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.20	0.22	0.23
WACC / Discount Rate	9.90%	9.90%	9.90%
Growth Rate	0.82%	1.82%	2.82%
Fair Value	$2.23	$2.77	$3.38
Upside / Downside	-81.55%	-77.10%	-72.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	58.41	59.47	60.55	61.66	62.78	63.92	65.83
Payout Ratio	40.87%	50.70%	60.52%	70.35%	80.17%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	23.88	30.15	36.65	43.37	50.33	57.53	60.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.90%	9.90%	9.90%
Growth Rate	0.82%	1.82%	2.82%
Year 1 PV (M)	27.17	27.44	27.71
Year 2 PV (M)	29.75	30.34	30.94
Year 3 PV (M)	31.72	32.67	33.65
Year 4 PV (M)	33.16	34.50	35.87
Year 5 PV (M)	34.15	35.88	37.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)	523.60	550.08	577.63
Equity Value (M)	679.54	710.91	743.47
Shares Outstanding (M)	232.25	232.25	232.25
Fair Value	$2.93	$3.06	$3.20
Upside / Downside	-75.82%	-74.70%	-73.54%

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Financial Statements

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Jiangsu Xinri E-Vehicle Co., Ltd. (603787.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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