DDM Analysis: 603396.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$56.24 - $66.26	$62.09
Multi-Stage	$39.03 - $42.81	$40.88
Blended Fair Value	$51.49
Current Price	$28.09
Upside	83.30%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	13.19%	0.00%	0.35	0.14	0.13	0.18	0.14	0.19	0.17	0.00	0.03	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	141.99%	6.25%	-26.89%	33.33%	-25.88%	9.68%	0.00%	-100.00%	-6.60%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.34%	0.35%	0.19%	0.29%	0.44%	1.00%	0.53%	0.00%	0.15%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	45.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	33.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)	12.12

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	9.19	5.74	3.45
Cash Retained (M)	12.12	12.12	12.12
(-) Cash Required (M)	-9.19	-5.74	-3.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2.93	6.38	8.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	137.91	137.91	137.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.05	0.06
LTM Dividend per Share	0.25	0.25	0.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.05	0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.27	0.29	0.31
WACC / Discount Rate	2.05%	2.05%	2.05%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$56.24	$62.09	$66.26
Upside / Downside	100.21%	121.05%	135.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	45.95	48.93	52.11	55.50	59.11	62.95	64.84
Payout Ratio	73.62%	76.90%	80.17%	83.45%	86.72%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	33.83	37.63	41.78	46.31	51.26	56.65	59.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	2.05%	2.05%	2.05%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	36.53	36.87	37.22
Year 2 PV (M)	39.37	40.12	40.88
Year 3 PV (M)	42.36	43.58	44.82
Year 4 PV (M)	45.52	47.27	49.07
Year 5 PV (M)	48.83	51.19	53.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)	5,169.52	5,419.21	5,678.46
Equity Value (M)	5,382.13	5,638.24	5,904.08
Shares Outstanding (M)	137.91	137.91	137.91
Fair Value	$39.03	$40.88	$42.81
Upside / Downside	38.94%	45.55%	52.41%

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Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co., Ltd. (603396.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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