DDM Analysis: 603043.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$59.41 - $173.60	$162.69
Multi-Stage	$24.22 - $26.48	$25.33
Blended Fair Value	$94.01
Current Price	$16.13
Upside	482.82%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	12.10%	7.98%	0.50	0.43	0.42	0.28	0.22	0.28	0.25	0.34	0.31	0.14
YoY Growth	-	-	16.39%	4.01%	48.55%	28.06%	-23.13%	14.29%	-27.38%	10.00%	122.22%	-40.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.23%	2.43%	1.41%	1.35%	0.81%	1.44%	1.15%	2.63%	2.30%	1.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	495.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	286.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)	208.90

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	99.05	61.91	37.14
Cash Retained (M)	208.90	208.90	208.90
(-) Cash Required (M)	-99.05	-61.91	-37.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)	109.85	146.99	171.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	567.37	567.37	567.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.19	0.26	0.30
LTM Dividend per Share	0.50	0.50	0.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.19	0.26	0.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.70	0.76	0.81
WACC / Discount Rate	6.74%	6.74%	6.74%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$59.41	$162.69	$173.60
Upside / Downside	268.31%	908.61%	976.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	495.26	527.45	561.73	598.25	637.13	678.55	698.90
Payout Ratio	57.82%	64.26%	70.69%	77.13%	83.56%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	286.36	338.92	397.10	461.42	532.41	610.69	646.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.74%	6.74%	6.74%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	314.54	317.52	320.50
Year 2 PV (M)	342.02	348.54	355.11
Year 3 PV (M)	368.82	379.41	390.20
Year 4 PV (M)	394.96	410.15	425.77
Year 5 PV (M)	420.43	440.74	461.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)	11,900.04	12,474.82	13,071.59
Equity Value (M)	13,740.81	14,371.17	15,025.00
Shares Outstanding (M)	567.37	567.37	567.37
Fair Value	$24.22	$25.33	$26.48
Upside / Downside	50.15%	57.03%	64.18%

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Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited (603043.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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