DDM Analysis: 601825.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$70.71 - $255.17	$224.99
Multi-Stage	$32.11 - $35.14	$33.60
Blended Fair Value	$129.29
Current Price	$8.18
Upside	1,480.58%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	24.77%	23.02%	0.84	0.61	0.54	0.50	0.39	0.28	0.29	0.32	0.15	0.15
YoY Growth	-	-	38.95%	12.02%	7.39%	29.61%	39.57%	-2.98%	-11.09%	112.60%	1.18%	41.44%
Dividend Yield	-	-	10.11%	8.75%	9.40%	7.83%	3.64%	2.61%	2.69%	3.02%	1.42%	1.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	12,370.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	3,010.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)	9,360.09

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,474.07	1,546.29	927.78
Cash Retained (M)	9,360.09	9,360.09	9,360.09
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,474.07	-1,546.29	-927.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)	6,886.02	7,813.80	8,432.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	9,641.13	9,641.13	9,641.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.71	0.81	0.87
LTM Dividend per Share	0.31	0.31	0.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.71	0.81	0.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.03	1.12	1.19
WACC / Discount Rate	7.03%	7.03%	7.03%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$70.71	$224.99	$255.17
Upside / Downside	764.45%	2,650.44%	3,019.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	12,370.35	13,174.42	14,030.75	14,942.75	15,914.03	16,948.44	17,456.90
Payout Ratio	24.33%	37.47%	50.60%	63.73%	76.87%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	3,010.26	4,936.13	7,099.66	9,523.58	12,232.62	15,253.60	16,147.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.03%	7.03%	7.03%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	4,568.55	4,611.85	4,655.16
Year 2 PV (M)	6,081.63	6,197.47	6,314.40
Year 3 PV (M)	7,550.48	7,767.23	7,988.09
Year 4 PV (M)	8,976.05	9,321.25	9,676.30
Year 5 PV (M)	10,359.28	10,859.64	11,379.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)	272,023.02	285,161.83	298,803.50
Equity Value (M)	309,559.02	323,919.27	338,816.59
Shares Outstanding (M)	9,641.13	9,641.13	9,641.13
Fair Value	$32.11	$33.60	$35.14
Upside / Downside	292.52%	310.73%	329.62%

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Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. (601825.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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