DDM Analysis: 600882.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$15.63 - $89.18	$29.41
Multi-Stage	$9.00 - $9.85	$9.42
Blended Fair Value	$19.41
Current Price	$24.38
Upside	-20.37%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-21.37%	-19.89%	0.05	0.03	0.06	0.04	0.08	0.18	0.18	0.16	0.04	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	59.58%	-39.53%	31.36%	-45.42%	-56.55%	1.87%	11.27%	295.27%	876.02%	-99.17%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.23%	0.24%	0.19%	0.12%	0.14%	0.79%	1.81%	1.92%	0.39%	0.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	204.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	32.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)	172.18

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	40.90	25.56	15.34
Cash Retained (M)	172.18	172.18	172.18
(-) Cash Required (M)	-40.90	-25.56	-15.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)	131.28	146.62	156.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	456.10	456.10	456.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.29	0.32	0.34
LTM Dividend per Share	0.07	0.07	0.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.29	0.32	0.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.36	0.39	0.41
WACC / Discount Rate	7.92%	7.92%	7.92%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$15.63	$29.41	$89.18
Upside / Downside	-35.87%	20.64%	265.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	204.52	217.81	231.97	247.05	263.10	280.20	288.61
Payout Ratio	15.81%	30.65%	45.49%	60.32%	75.16%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	32.33	66.75	105.51	149.03	197.75	252.18	266.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.92%	7.92%	7.92%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	61.27	61.86	62.44
Year 2 PV (M)	88.90	90.59	92.30
Year 3 PV (M)	115.26	118.56	121.94
Year 4 PV (M)	140.38	145.78	151.34
Year 5 PV (M)	164.33	172.26	180.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,535.26	3,706.02	3,883.31
Equity Value (M)	4,105.40	4,295.08	4,491.82
Shares Outstanding (M)	456.10	456.10	456.10
Fair Value	$9.00	$9.42	$9.85
Upside / Downside	-63.08%	-61.37%	-59.61%

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Financial Statements

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Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co., Ltd (600882.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener