DDM Analysis: 600827.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$20.19 - $23.85	$22.32
Multi-Stage	$121.64 - $135.38	$128.36
Blended Fair Value	$75.34
Current Price	$8.98
Upside	739.00%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-4.53%	-3.98%	0.27	0.21	0.25	0.24	0.20	0.34	0.32	0.33	0.07	0.37
YoY Growth	-	-	27.82%	-15.74%	3.88%	22.30%	-42.04%	4.63%	-1.63%	343.93%	-79.92%	-8.40%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.94%	2.35%	1.92%	2.22%	1.11%	4.35%	3.13%	3.03%	0.46%	2.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	242.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	239.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)	3.42

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	48.56	30.35	18.21
Cash Retained (M)	3.42	3.42	3.42
(-) Cash Required (M)	-48.56	-30.35	-18.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-45.13	-26.93	-14.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,767.89	1,767.89	1,767.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.14	0.14	0.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.11	0.12	0.13
WACC / Discount Rate	-40.89%	-40.89%	-40.89%
Growth Rate	-8.11%	-7.11%	-6.11%
Fair Value	$20.19	$22.32	$23.85
Upside / Downside	124.85%	148.60%	165.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	242.78	225.53	209.50	194.62	180.79	167.94	172.98
Payout Ratio	98.59%	96.87%	95.15%	93.44%	91.72%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	239.35	218.47	199.35	181.84	165.81	151.15	160.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	-40.89%	-40.89%	-40.89%
Growth Rate	-8.11%	-7.11%	-6.11%
Year 1 PV (M)	365.60	369.58	373.56
Year 2 PV (M)	558.25	570.47	582.82
Year 3 PV (M)	852.15	880.27	909.01
Year 4 PV (M)	1,300.32	1,357.86	1,417.28
Year 5 PV (M)	1,983.52	2,093.82	2,208.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)	209,977.60	221,653.88	233,843.90
Equity Value (M)	215,037.44	226,925.87	239,335.52
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,767.89	1,767.89	1,767.89
Fair Value	$121.64	$128.36	$135.38
Upside / Downside	1,254.51%	1,329.40%	1,407.57%

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Shanghai Bailian (Group) Co., Ltd. (600827.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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