DDM Analysis: 600598.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$9.28 - $17.45	$12.60
Multi-Stage	$16.08 - $17.63	$16.84
Blended Fair Value	$14.72
Current Price	$14.37
Upside	2.45%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	1.90%	38.00%	0.44	0.42	0.40	0.40	0.38	0.40	0.27	0.34	0.29	0.39
YoY Growth	-	-	4.57%	5.00%	-0.04%	5.30%	-4.96%	48.10%	-20.60%	15.25%	-24.88%	2,140.25%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.17%	3.39%	2.98%	2.64%	2.43%	2.32%	2.68%	3.07%	2.62%	3.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,096.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	978.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)	118.34

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	219.31	137.07	82.24
Cash Retained (M)	118.34	118.34	118.34
(-) Cash Required (M)	-219.31	-137.07	-82.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-100.98	-18.73	36.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,777.68	1,777.68	1,777.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.06	-0.01	0.02
LTM Dividend per Share	0.55	0.55	0.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.06	-0.01	0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.49	0.54	0.57
WACC / Discount Rate	6.31%	6.31%	6.31%
Growth Rate	0.94%	1.94%	2.94%
Fair Value	$9.28	$12.60	$17.45
Upside / Downside	-35.41%	-12.31%	21.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,096.57	1,117.88	1,139.59	1,161.73	1,184.29	1,207.30	1,243.52
Payout Ratio	89.21%	89.37%	89.52%	89.68%	89.84%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	978.24	999.01	1,020.22	1,041.88	1,063.99	1,086.57	1,150.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.31%	6.31%	6.31%
Growth Rate	0.94%	1.94%	2.94%
Year 1 PV (M)	930.50	939.72	948.94
Year 2 PV (M)	885.10	902.72	920.52
Year 3 PV (M)	841.90	867.17	892.94
Year 4 PV (M)	800.81	833.02	866.19
Year 5 PV (M)	761.73	800.21	840.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)	24,368.67	25,599.88	26,880.36
Equity Value (M)	28,588.71	29,942.72	31,349.19
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,777.68	1,777.68	1,777.68
Fair Value	$16.08	$16.84	$17.63
Upside / Downside	11.91%	17.21%	22.72%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

Heilongjiang Agriculture Company Limited (600598.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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