DDM Analysis: 600528.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.59 - $6.62	$5.58
Multi-Stage	$6.40 - $7.04	$6.71
Blended Fair Value	$6.15
Current Price	$8.28
Upside	-25.77%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	3.67%	-10.44%	0.14	0.24	0.16	0.20	0.18	0.12	0.47	0.20	0.53	0.39
YoY Growth	-	-	-40.72%	46.85%	-19.18%	14.34%	48.85%	-74.56%	131.86%	-61.96%	35.11%	-8.59%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.72%	3.07%	1.71%	2.55%	1.95%	1.24%	3.81%	1.74%	3.28%	2.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,444.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	88.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,356.22

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	288.95	180.60	108.36
Cash Retained (M)	1,356.22	1,356.22	1,356.22
(-) Cash Required (M)	-288.95	-180.60	-108.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,067.26	1,175.62	1,247.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,272.82	2,272.82	2,272.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.47	0.52	0.55
LTM Dividend per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.47	0.52	0.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.51	0.56	0.59
WACC / Discount Rate	9.94%	9.94%	9.94%
Growth Rate	-1.03%	-0.03%	0.97%
Fair Value	$4.59	$5.58	$6.62
Upside / Downside	-44.58%	-32.62%	-20.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,444.77	1,444.33	1,443.89	1,443.45	1,443.01	1,442.57	1,485.85
Payout Ratio	6.13%	22.90%	39.68%	56.45%	73.23%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	88.56	330.80	572.90	814.85	1,056.66	1,298.31	1,374.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.94%	9.94%	9.94%
Growth Rate	-1.03%	-0.03%	0.97%
Year 1 PV (M)	297.89	300.90	303.91
Year 2 PV (M)	464.58	474.02	483.55
Year 3 PV (M)	595.05	613.27	631.86
Year 4 PV (M)	694.86	723.38	752.76
Year 5 PV (M)	768.84	808.48	849.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)	11,733.36	12,338.24	12,967.81
Equity Value (M)	14,554.59	15,258.28	15,989.62
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,272.82	2,272.82	2,272.82
Fair Value	$6.40	$6.71	$7.04
Upside / Downside	-22.66%	-18.92%	-15.03%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

China Railway Hi-tech Industry Corporation Limited (600528.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener