DDM Analysis: 600219.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$40.74 - $88.18	$82.64
Multi-Stage	$13.33 - $14.60	$13.95
Blended Fair Value	$48.30
Current Price	$3.96
Upside	1,119.59%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	33.29%	24.10%	0.22	0.04	0.06	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	436.82%	-37.17%	13.40%	10.00%	0.00%	7.65%	20.00%	63.15%	0.00%	-2.28%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.72%	1.18%	1.91%	1.40%	1.50%	2.52%	1.73%	1.37%	0.82%	0.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	5,112.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,002.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)	3,109.94

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,022.47	639.04	383.43
Cash Retained (M)	3,109.94	3,109.94	3,109.94
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,022.47	-639.04	-383.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,087.47	2,470.90	2,726.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	11,529.93	11,529.93	11,529.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.18	0.21	0.24
LTM Dividend per Share	0.17	0.17	0.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.18	0.21	0.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.35	0.39	0.41
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$40.74	$82.64	$88.18
Upside / Downside	928.88%	1,986.82%	2,126.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	5,112.34	5,444.65	5,798.55	6,175.45	6,576.86	7,004.35	7,214.48
Payout Ratio	39.17%	49.33%	59.50%	69.67%	79.83%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,002.40	2,686.08	3,450.18	4,302.27	5,250.54	6,303.92	6,673.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,500.38	2,524.08	2,547.78
Year 2 PV (M)	2,989.60	3,046.55	3,104.03
Year 3 PV (M)	3,470.20	3,569.82	3,671.32
Year 4 PV (M)	3,942.28	4,093.89	4,249.83
Year 5 PV (M)	4,405.95	4,618.76	4,839.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)	136,439.81	143,029.90	149,872.22
Equity Value (M)	153,748.21	160,882.99	168,284.88
Shares Outstanding (M)	11,529.93	11,529.93	11,529.93
Fair Value	$13.33	$13.95	$14.60
Upside / Downside	236.74%	252.36%	268.57%

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Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.,Ltd. (600219.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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