Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Value Valves Co., Ltd. (4580.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$54.86 - $85.91$69.14
Multi-Stage$121.53 - $133.51$127.40
Blended Fair Value$98.27
Current Price$79.20
Upside24.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS4.34%0.00%4.484.904.874.334.233.620.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---8.57%0.64%12.52%2.20%16.85%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.96%5.07%5.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)261.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)207.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)54.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.2232.6419.58
Cash Retained (M)54.0754.0754.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.22-32.64-19.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.8521.4334.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)46.2046.2046.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.460.75
LTM Dividend per Share4.484.484.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.460.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.524.945.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-1.57%-0.57%0.43%
Fair Value$54.86$69.14$85.91
Upside / Downside-30.73%-12.70%8.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)261.11259.62258.13256.66255.19253.73261.34
Payout Ratio79.29%81.43%83.57%85.72%87.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)207.04211.42215.74220.00224.21228.36241.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-1.57%-0.57%0.43%
Year 1 PV (M)196.44198.44200.43
Year 2 PV (M)186.26190.06193.91
Year 3 PV (M)176.49181.92187.47
Year 4 PV (M)167.13174.02181.13
Year 5 PV (M)158.17166.37174.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,730.404,975.635,230.93
Equity Value (M)5,614.885,886.446,168.77
Shares Outstanding (M)46.2046.2046.20
Fair Value$121.53$127.40$133.51
Upside / Downside53.44%60.86%68.58%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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