DDM Analysis: 3948.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$318.83 - $531.56	$498.15
Multi-Stage	$85.11 - $93.22	$89.09
Blended Fair Value	$293.62
Current Price	$15.93
Upside	1,743.17%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
DPS	9.26%	3.01%	1.23	0.70	0.93	1.17	1.10	0.79	0.60	0.80	0.74	0.90
YoY Growth	-	-	75.56%	-25.11%	-20.03%	5.79%	39.98%	32.04%	-25.08%	7.92%	-17.86%	-1.50%
Dividend Yield	-	-	8.91%	9.43%	23.30%	22.59%	18.74%	10.26%	9.23%	20.61%	12.11%	11.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	8,691.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,113.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)	6,577.66

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,738.26	1,086.41	651.85
Cash Retained (M)	6,577.66	6,577.66	6,577.66
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,738.26	-1,086.41	-651.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)	4,839.41	5,491.25	5,925.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,251.73	3,251.73	3,251.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.49	1.69	1.82
LTM Dividend per Share	0.65	0.65	0.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.49	1.69	1.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.14	2.34	2.47
WACC / Discount Rate	6.21%	6.21%	6.21%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$318.83	$498.15	$531.56
Upside / Downside	1,901.44%	3,027.10%	3,236.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	8,691.28	9,256.22	9,857.87	10,498.63	11,181.04	11,907.81	12,265.04
Payout Ratio	24.32%	37.46%	50.59%	63.73%	76.86%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,113.62	3,466.92	4,987.23	6,690.52	8,594.17	10,717.03	11,345.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.21%	6.21%	6.21%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,233.64	3,264.29	3,294.94
Year 2 PV (M)	4,338.64	4,421.28	4,504.70
Year 3 PV (M)	5,428.78	5,584.62	5,743.42
Year 4 PV (M)	6,504.20	6,754.33	7,011.61
Year 5 PV (M)	7,565.05	7,930.45	8,309.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)	249,675.39	261,734.80	274,255.76
Equity Value (M)	276,745.70	289,689.77	303,120.25
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,251.73	3,251.73	3,251.73
Fair Value	$85.11	$89.09	$93.22
Upside / Downside	434.26%	459.25%	485.17%

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0R40.L	Rai Way S.p.A.	6.03%	$0.33	99.60%
3600.HK	Modern Dental Group Limited	6.03%	$0.32	34.31%
003460.KS	Yuhwa Securities co.,ltd.	6.02%	$162.45	83.00%
298540.KQ	The Nature Holdings Co., Ltd.	6.02%	$521.44	76.58%
6263.TWO	Planet Technology Corporation	6.02%	$7.86	95.87%
NZX.NZ	NZX Limited	6.02%	$0.09	77.46%
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5209.KL	Gas Malaysia Berhad	6.01%	$0.26	82.61%
ALLAN.PA	Lanson-BCC	6.01%	$1.96	26.09%
QAMC.QA	Qatar Aluminium Manufacturing Company Q.P.S.C.	6.00%	$0.10	74.36%
0237.HK	Safety Godown Company, Limited	5.99%	$0.12	71.07%
8986.T	Daiwa Securities Living Investment Corporation	5.99%	$6,829.90	63.32%
ASX.AX	ASX Limited	5.99%	$3.08	67.16%
MKP.TO	MCAN Mortgage Corporation	5.99%	$1.35	74.01%
0QMU.L	Compagnie Financière Richemont S.A.	5.98%	$6.91	67.79%
8924.TWO	O-TA Precision Industry Co., Ltd.	5.98%	$4.29	80.38%
FMTY14.MX	Fibra Mty, S.A.P.I. de C.V.	5.98%	$0.93	46.45%
HUMAN.BK	Humanica Public Company Limited	5.98%	$0.30	74.76%
603368.SS	Guangxi LiuYao Group Co., Ltd	5.97%	$1.06	53.83%
6069.HK	SY Holdings Group Limited	5.97%	$0.67	97.72%
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PXT.TO	Parex Resources Inc.	5.97%	$1.12	86.22%
SB	Safe Bulkers, Inc.	5.97%	$0.29	64.01%
1562.KL	Sports Toto Berhad	5.96%	$0.08	49.23%
8442.TW	WW Holding Inc.	5.96%	$4.19	72.79%
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WLE.AX	WAM Leaders Limited	5.96%	$0.08	8.04%
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1155.KL	Malayan Banking Berhad	5.94%	$0.62	72.18%
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Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal Co., Ltd. (3948.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener