Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Universal Vision Biotechnology Co., Ltd. (3218.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$546.22 - $2,077.04$1,585.68
Multi-Stage$265.38 - $289.91$277.42
Blended Fair Value$931.55
Current Price$202.00
Upside361.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS44.19%0.00%6.985.644.483.761.791.120.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--23.67%26.00%19.05%110.00%60.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.52%2.04%1.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)887.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)635.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)252.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)177.57110.9866.59
Cash Retained (M)252.42252.42252.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-177.57-110.98-66.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)74.85141.43185.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)85.0185.0185.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.881.662.19
LTM Dividend per Share7.477.477.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.881.662.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.369.149.66
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$546.22$1,585.68$2,077.04
Upside / Downside170.40%684.99%928.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)887.85945.561,007.031,072.481,142.191,216.441,252.93
Payout Ratio71.57%75.26%78.94%82.63%86.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)635.44711.59794.97886.17985.871,094.791,158.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)658.10664.33670.57
Year 2 PV (M)679.93692.88705.95
Year 3 PV (M)700.95721.08741.58
Year 4 PV (M)721.19748.93777.45
Year 5 PV (M)740.66776.43813.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,059.6819,980.2720,936.09
Equity Value (M)22,560.5123,583.9224,645.23
Shares Outstanding (M)85.0185.0185.01
Fair Value$265.38$277.42$289.91
Upside / Downside31.38%37.34%43.52%

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