Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Qinhuangdao Tianqin Equipment Manufacturing Co.,Ltd. (300922.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.10 - $7.58$5.53
Multi-Stage$3.83 - $4.17$4.00
Blended Fair Value$4.77
Current Price$27.57
Upside-82.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.07%6.37%0.150.100.250.250.000.080.320.350.040.02
YoY Growth--48.52%-60.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-75.00%-8.35%752.64%77.58%-71.07%
Dividend Yield--0.85%0.77%1.43%1.26%0.00%0.30%1.21%1.32%0.16%0.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)42.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)14.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.465.293.17
Cash Retained (M)14.3514.3514.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.46-5.29-3.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.899.0611.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)155.85155.85155.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate4.37%5.37%6.37%
Fair Value$4.10$5.53$7.58
Upside / Downside-85.11%-79.93%-72.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)42.2944.5746.9649.4952.1554.9556.60
Payout Ratio66.08%70.86%75.65%80.43%85.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.9531.5835.5339.8044.4449.4552.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate4.37%5.37%6.37%
Year 1 PV (M)28.4728.7429.01
Year 2 PV (M)28.8629.4229.98
Year 3 PV (M)29.1429.9930.85
Year 4 PV (M)29.3330.4731.64
Year 5 PV (M)29.4230.8532.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)451.62473.67496.58
Equity Value (M)596.83623.14650.40
Shares Outstanding (M)155.85155.85155.85
Fair Value$3.83$4.00$4.17
Upside / Downside-86.11%-85.50%-84.86%

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