Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.,LTD (300181.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.55 - $161.92$52.19
Multi-Stage$17.70 - $19.31$18.49
Blended Fair Value$35.34
Current Price$17.80
Upside98.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS45.80%16.12%0.460.300.170.090.020.070.020.020.060.09
YoY Growth--52.46%72.86%100.00%400.00%-75.00%300.00%0.00%-71.43%-32.76%-12.00%
Dividend Yield--2.78%2.30%1.17%0.80%0.24%1.26%0.24%0.24%0.74%1.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)596.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)438.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)157.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)119.2574.5344.72
Cash Retained (M)157.41157.41157.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-119.25-74.53-44.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.1682.88112.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)698.39698.39698.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.120.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.630.630.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.120.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.750.79
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$28.55$52.19$161.92
Upside / Downside60.37%193.23%809.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)596.27635.02676.30720.26767.08816.94841.44
Payout Ratio73.60%76.88%80.16%83.44%86.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)438.86488.21542.13600.99665.21735.24778.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)447.70451.94456.19
Year 2 PV (M)455.89464.58473.34
Year 3 PV (M)463.46476.76490.32
Year 4 PV (M)470.42488.51507.12
Year 5 PV (M)476.80499.83523.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,046.0610,531.2911,035.09
Equity Value (M)12,360.3312,912.9113,485.80
Shares Outstanding (M)698.39698.39698.39
Fair Value$17.70$18.49$19.31
Upside / Downside-0.57%3.87%8.48%

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