Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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President Chain Store Corporation (2912.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$338.09 - $1,654.66$601.79
Multi-Stage$314.82 - $344.57$329.42
Blended Fair Value$465.60
Current Price$256.50
Upside81.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.69%6.82%11.598.998.998.998.998.7924.977.997.196.99
YoY Growth--28.96%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.27%-64.80%212.50%11.11%2.86%16.67%
Dividend Yield--4.62%3.34%3.34%3.42%3.30%3.11%8.38%2.70%2.88%2.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11,176.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,357.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,819.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,235.351,397.09838.26
Cash Retained (M)1,819.701,819.701,819.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,235.35-1,397.09-838.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)-415.64422.61981.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,040.981,040.981,040.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.400.410.94
LTM Dividend per Share8.998.998.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.400.410.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.599.399.93
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate3.69%4.69%5.69%
Fair Value$338.09$601.79$1,654.66
Upside / Downside31.81%134.61%545.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11,176.7411,701.1712,250.2012,825.0013,426.7614,056.7714,478.47
Payout Ratio83.72%84.98%86.23%87.49%88.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,357.049,943.0810,563.5111,220.2811,915.4212,651.0913,392.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate3.69%4.69%5.69%
Year 1 PV (M)9,262.139,351.469,440.78
Year 2 PV (M)9,166.199,343.849,523.19
Year 3 PV (M)9,069.319,334.249,604.28
Year 4 PV (M)8,971.619,322.739,684.06
Year 5 PV (M)8,873.189,309.379,762.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)282,375.84296,257.08310,678.94
Equity Value (M)327,718.25342,918.71358,693.80
Shares Outstanding (M)1,040.981,040.981,040.98
Fair Value$314.82$329.42$344.57
Upside / Downside22.74%28.43%34.34%

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