DDM Analysis: 2869.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$45.78 - $99.73	$93.46
Multi-Stage	$14.84 - $16.26	$15.54
Blended Fair Value	$54.50
Current Price	$4.00
Upside	1,262.47%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	19.52%	17.50%	0.14	0.09	0.17	0.17	0.07	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.08
YoY Growth	-	-	52.03%	-47.48%	0.15%	145.87%	24.03%	32.28%	34.45%	356.40%	-91.75%	207.25%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.80%	3.41%	3.75%	2.92%	0.86%	0.74%	0.81%	0.62%	0.29%	4.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,587.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	285.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,302.74

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	317.57	198.48	119.09
Cash Retained (M)	1,302.74	1,302.74	1,302.74
(-) Cash Required (M)	-317.57	-198.48	-119.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)	985.17	1,104.26	1,183.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,166.48	3,166.48	3,166.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.31	0.35	0.37
LTM Dividend per Share	0.09	0.09	0.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.31	0.35	0.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.40	0.44	0.46
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$45.78	$93.46	$99.73
Upside / Downside	1,044.56%	2,236.47%	2,393.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,587.85	1,691.06	1,800.98	1,918.05	2,042.72	2,175.49	2,240.76
Payout Ratio	17.96%	32.36%	46.77%	61.18%	75.59%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	285.12	547.31	842.38	1,173.51	1,544.12	1,957.95	2,072.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	509.44	514.27	519.10
Year 2 PV (M)	729.85	743.75	757.78
Year 3 PV (M)	946.39	973.56	1,001.24
Year 4 PV (M)	1,159.11	1,203.69	1,249.54
Year 5 PV (M)	1,368.07	1,434.15	1,502.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)	42,291.67	44,334.37	46,455.25
Equity Value (M)	47,004.53	49,203.78	51,485.67
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,166.48	3,166.48	3,166.48
Fair Value	$14.84	$15.54	$16.26
Upside / Downside	271.11%	288.47%	306.49%

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0R40.L	Rai Way S.p.A.	6.03%	$0.33	99.60%
3600.HK	Modern Dental Group Limited	6.03%	$0.32	34.31%
003460.KS	Yuhwa Securities co.,ltd.	6.02%	$162.45	83.00%
298540.KQ	The Nature Holdings Co., Ltd.	6.02%	$521.44	76.58%
6263.TWO	Planet Technology Corporation	6.02%	$7.86	95.87%
NZX.NZ	NZX Limited	6.02%	$0.09	77.46%
WLMM3.SA	WLM Participações e Comércio de Máquinas e Veículos S.A.	6.02%	$1.23	40.06%
1760.HK	Intron Technology Holdings Limited	6.01%	$0.12	30.56%
5209.KL	Gas Malaysia Berhad	6.01%	$0.26	82.61%
ALLAN.PA	Lanson-BCC	6.01%	$1.96	26.09%
QAMC.QA	Qatar Aluminium Manufacturing Company Q.P.S.C.	6.00%	$0.10	74.36%
0237.HK	Safety Godown Company, Limited	5.99%	$0.12	71.07%
8986.T	Daiwa Securities Living Investment Corporation	5.99%	$6,829.90	63.32%
ASX.AX	ASX Limited	5.99%	$3.08	67.16%
MKP.TO	MCAN Mortgage Corporation	5.99%	$1.35	74.01%
0QMU.L	Compagnie Financière Richemont S.A.	5.98%	$6.91	67.79%
8924.TWO	O-TA Precision Industry Co., Ltd.	5.98%	$4.29	80.38%
FMTY14.MX	Fibra Mty, S.A.P.I. de C.V.	5.98%	$0.93	46.45%
HUMAN.BK	Humanica Public Company Limited	5.98%	$0.30	74.76%
603368.SS	Guangxi LiuYao Group Co., Ltd	5.97%	$1.06	53.83%
6069.HK	SY Holdings Group Limited	5.97%	$0.67	97.72%
ASII.JK	PT Astra International Tbk	5.97%	$405.75	50.28%
PXT.TO	Parex Resources Inc.	5.97%	$1.12	86.22%
SB	Safe Bulkers, Inc.	5.97%	$0.29	64.01%
1562.KL	Sports Toto Berhad	5.96%	$0.08	49.23%
8442.TW	WW Holding Inc.	5.96%	$4.19	72.79%
NTV.BK	Nonthavej Hospital Public Company Limited	5.96%	$1.37	66.11%
WLE.AX	WAM Leaders Limited	5.96%	$0.08	8.04%
094280.KS	Hyosung ITX Co. Ltd.	5.95%	$751.76	70.97%
O3P.DE	Österreichische Post AG	5.95%	$1.88	98.14%
PWO.DE	PWO AG	5.95%	$1.75	48.89%
0898.HK	Multifield International Holdings Limited	5.94%	$0.06	9.32%
1155.KL	Malayan Banking Berhad	5.94%	$0.62	72.18%
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0GX2.L	Neurones S.A.	5.92%	$2.49	61.25%
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HEN.DE	Henkel AG & Co. KGaA	5.92%	$3.87	41.88%
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0RCW.L	Kid ASA	5.91%	$8.00	99.60%
ARSA.ME	Arsagera Asset Management	5.91%	$0.50	52.65%
DBM.TO	Doman Building Materials Group Ltd.	5.91%	$0.56	65.99%
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Financial Statements

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Sector

Greentown Service Group Co. Ltd. (2869.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener