Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Haitai Confectionery&Foods Co.,ltd. (101530.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8,560.73 - $13,301.87$10,752.85
Multi-Stage$19,641.04 - $21,642.11$20,621.82
Blended Fair Value$15,687.33
Current Price$6,640.00
Upside136.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.92%0.00%200.01200.01200.01200.01150.01150.01150.01150.010.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%33.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.07%3.77%3.24%2.44%1.81%2.09%1.47%1.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)24,060.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,629.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)17,430.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,812.013,007.511,804.50
Cash Retained (M)17,430.6517,430.6517,430.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,812.01-3,007.51-1,804.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)12,618.6414,423.1415,626.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)26.5226.5226.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share475.88543.93589.30
LTM Dividend per Share250.01250.01250.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share475.88543.93589.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend725.89793.94839.31
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$8,560.73$10,752.85$13,301.87
Upside / Downside28.93%61.94%100.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)24,060.0723,819.4623,581.2723,345.4623,112.0022,880.8823,567.31
Payout Ratio27.55%40.04%52.53%65.02%77.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,629.429,538.0012,387.7515,179.5517,914.2820,592.7921,799.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)8,881.278,971.909,062.52
Year 2 PV (M)10,740.5910,960.9111,183.46
Year 3 PV (M)12,254.9812,633.9813,020.71
Year 4 PV (M)13,467.0114,025.1514,600.47
Year 5 PV (M)14,414.6815,165.2815,946.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)461,053.04485,061.14510,059.11
Equity Value (M)520,811.58546,818.36573,873.11
Shares Outstanding (M)26.5226.5226.52
Fair Value$19,641.04$20,621.82$21,642.11
Upside / Downside195.80%210.57%225.94%

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