Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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SIIC Environment Holdings Ltd. (0807.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.99 - $17.53$9.44
Multi-Stage$6.66 - $7.31$6.98
Blended Fair Value$8.21
Current Price$0.90
Upside808.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.96%6.68%0.030.080.070.070.050.050.050.040.660.00
YoY Growth---59.33%5.51%3.27%40.95%0.16%0.77%17.82%-93.46%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--3.54%9.16%7.55%7.26%4.83%4.74%2.92%1.92%23.80%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)627.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)157.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)470.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)125.5978.4947.10
Cash Retained (M)470.47470.47470.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-125.59-78.49-47.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)344.88391.98423.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,575.672,575.672,575.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.210.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate2.97%3.97%4.97%
Fair Value$5.99$9.44$17.53
Upside / Downside563.79%944.97%1,841.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)627.95652.89678.82705.78733.81762.95785.84
Payout Ratio25.08%38.06%51.05%64.03%77.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)157.48248.51346.52451.92565.15686.65726.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate2.97%3.97%4.97%
Year 1 PV (M)231.48233.73235.98
Year 2 PV (M)300.67306.53312.46
Year 3 PV (M)365.26376.01386.96
Year 4 PV (M)425.48442.26459.52
Year 5 PV (M)481.55505.39530.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,346.9416,106.7616,896.38
Equity Value (M)17,151.3917,970.6818,821.46
Shares Outstanding (M)2,575.672,575.672,575.67
Fair Value$6.66$6.98$7.31
Upside / Downside637.37%672.59%709.17%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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