DDM Analysis: 002827.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$23.32 - $117.71	$48.30
Multi-Stage	$12.90 - $14.10	$13.49
Blended Fair Value	$30.89
Current Price	$38.57
Upside	-19.90%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-3.28%	-2.78%	0.23	0.27	0.18	0.19	0.17	0.28	0.27	0.20	0.16	0.17
YoY Growth	-	-	-14.03%	47.76%	-1.62%	9.49%	-38.14%	3.75%	33.33%	28.14%	-5.55%	-46.77%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.96%	1.71%	1.80%	1.78%	1.48%	3.12%	2.27%	1.71%	0.74%	2.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	163.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	61.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)	101.96

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	32.67	20.42	12.25
Cash Retained (M)	101.96	101.96	101.96
(-) Cash Required (M)	-32.67	-20.42	-12.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)	69.30	81.55	89.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	275.96	275.96	275.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.25	0.30	0.33
LTM Dividend per Share	0.22	0.22	0.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.25	0.30	0.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.47	0.52	0.55
WACC / Discount Rate	7.64%	7.64%	7.64%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$23.32	$48.30	$117.71
Upside / Downside	-39.53%	25.22%	205.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	163.34	173.96	185.26	197.31	210.13	223.79	230.50
Payout Ratio	37.58%	48.06%	58.55%	69.03%	79.52%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	61.38	83.60	108.46	136.20	167.09	201.41	213.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.64%	7.64%	7.64%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	76.94	77.67	78.40
Year 2 PV (M)	91.86	93.61	95.38
Year 3 PV (M)	106.16	109.20	112.31
Year 4 PV (M)	119.85	124.46	129.20
Year 5 PV (M)	132.95	139.37	146.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,031.91	3,178.36	3,330.40
Equity Value (M)	3,559.67	3,722.66	3,891.72
Shares Outstanding (M)	275.96	275.96	275.96
Fair Value	$12.90	$13.49	$14.10
Upside / Downside	-66.56%	-65.03%	-63.44%

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Tibet GaoZheng Explosive Co., Ltd. (002827.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener