Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Songz Automobile Air Conditioning Co., Ltd. (002454.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56.05 - $66.05$61.89
Multi-Stage$47.75 - $52.43$50.05
Blended Fair Value$55.97
Current Price$8.65
Upside547.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.73%0.00%0.060.080.150.060.040.040.110.040.050.23
YoY Growth---21.56%-49.15%159.82%55.66%7.96%-68.68%151.84%-17.85%-76.18%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.90%1.19%2.09%0.96%0.67%0.76%2.08%0.50%0.63%2.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)207.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)63.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)143.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.5225.9515.57
Cash Retained (M)143.91143.91143.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.52-25.95-15.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)102.39117.96128.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)622.60622.60622.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate-2.57%-2.57%-2.57%
Growth Rate5.06%6.06%7.06%
Fair Value$56.05$61.89$66.05
Upside / Downside548.03%615.53%663.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)207.62220.20233.54247.69262.69278.61286.96
Payout Ratio30.68%42.55%54.41%66.27%78.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)63.7193.69127.07164.15205.26250.75265.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-2.57%-2.57%-2.57%
Growth Rate5.06%6.06%7.06%
Year 1 PV (M)95.2596.1697.07
Year 2 PV (M)131.35133.87136.40
Year 3 PV (M)172.52177.50182.56
Year 4 PV (M)219.33227.81236.52
Year 5 PV (M)272.42285.63299.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,838.7230,237.6131,690.27
Equity Value (M)29,729.6131,158.5732,642.17
Shares Outstanding (M)622.60622.60622.60
Fair Value$47.75$50.05$52.43
Upside / Downside452.03%478.57%506.12%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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