Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Guilin Sanjin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (002275.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.37 - $22.03$16.44
Multi-Stage$15.88 - $17.37$16.61
Blended Fair Value$16.53
Current Price$14.58
Upside13.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.84%0.29%0.580.730.980.780.250.360.410.410.510.61
YoY Growth---21.42%-25.07%25.83%209.20%-30.22%-11.98%-0.69%-18.89%-16.89%9.28%
Dividend Yield--4.09%5.08%5.79%5.62%1.91%2.80%2.70%2.58%2.70%3.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)522.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)358.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)164.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)104.5865.3639.22
Cash Retained (M)164.64164.64164.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-104.58-65.36-39.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)60.0699.28125.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)584.09584.09584.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.170.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.610.610.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.170.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.720.780.83
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate2.11%3.11%4.11%
Fair Value$12.37$16.44$22.03
Upside / Downside-15.17%12.77%51.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)522.88539.16555.93573.23591.07609.46627.75
Payout Ratio68.51%72.81%77.11%81.41%85.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)358.25392.56428.67466.64506.56548.52580.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate2.11%3.11%4.11%
Year 1 PV (M)359.88363.40366.93
Year 2 PV (M)360.26367.35374.51
Year 3 PV (M)359.52370.18381.06
Year 4 PV (M)357.78372.00386.65
Year 5 PV (M)355.16372.89391.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,483.047,856.708,245.14
Equity Value (M)9,275.639,702.5310,145.61
Shares Outstanding (M)584.09584.09584.09
Fair Value$15.88$16.61$17.37
Upside / Downside8.92%13.93%19.14%

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