Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Sichuan Zigong Conveying Machine Group Co., Ltd. (001288.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$64.75 - $190.69$178.71
Multi-Stage$25.99 - $28.45$27.20
Blended Fair Value$102.95
Current Price$25.70
Upside300.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS23.61%0.00%0.230.090.090.010.000.080.090.050.000.00
YoY Growth--173.11%-3.39%1,053.60%0.00%-100.00%-7.23%72.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.08%0.53%0.79%0.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)180.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)127.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.0722.5513.53
Cash Retained (M)127.86127.86127.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.07-22.55-13.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)91.79105.32114.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)188.10188.10188.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.490.560.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.490.560.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.770.840.89
WACC / Discount Rate6.75%6.75%6.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$64.75$178.71$190.69
Upside / Downside151.94%595.35%641.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)180.36192.08204.57217.87232.03247.11254.52
Payout Ratio29.11%41.29%53.46%65.64%77.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52.5079.30109.37143.01180.57222.40235.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.75%6.75%6.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)73.5974.2974.99
Year 2 PV (M)94.1895.9897.79
Year 3 PV (M)114.28117.56120.91
Year 4 PV (M)133.90139.05144.35
Year 5 PV (M)153.04160.43168.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,320.454,529.134,745.80
Equity Value (M)4,889.455,116.455,351.93
Shares Outstanding (M)188.10188.10188.10
Fair Value$25.99$27.20$28.45
Upside / Downside1.14%5.84%10.71%

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