DDM Analysis: XPS.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$38.40 - $150.50	$65.19
Multi-Stage	$23.70 - $25.92	$24.79
Blended Fair Value	$44.99
Current Price	$3.75
Upside	1,099.78%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	10.59%	0.00%	0.10	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.02	0.00	0.09
YoY Growth	-	-	23.08%	17.57%	10.85%	2.60%	0.51%	1.56%	245.53%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.69%	3.57%	4.36%	5.07%	4.99%	5.55%	4.38%	0.96%	0.00%	6.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	285.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	32.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)	253.83

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	57.20	35.75	21.45
Cash Retained (M)	253.83	253.83	253.83
(-) Cash Required (M)	-57.20	-35.75	-21.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)	196.63	218.08	232.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	219.83	219.83	219.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.89	0.99	1.06
LTM Dividend per Share	0.15	0.15	0.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.89	0.99	1.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.04	1.14	1.20
WACC / Discount Rate	8.36%	8.36%	8.36%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$38.40	$65.19	$150.50
Upside / Downside	923.94%	1,638.52%	3,913.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	285.99	304.58	324.38	345.46	367.92	391.83	403.59
Payout Ratio	11.25%	27.00%	42.75%	58.50%	74.25%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	32.16	82.23	138.66	202.09	273.18	352.65	373.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.36%	8.36%	8.36%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	75.17	75.88	76.60
Year 2 PV (M)	115.89	118.10	120.32
Year 3 PV (M)	154.40	158.83	163.35
Year 4 PV (M)	190.80	198.14	205.69
Year 5 PV (M)	225.18	236.05	247.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,447.61	4,662.43	4,885.47
Equity Value (M)	5,209.05	5,449.44	5,698.78
Shares Outstanding (M)	219.83	219.83	219.83
Fair Value	$23.70	$24.79	$25.92
Upside / Downside	531.89%	561.05%	591.30%

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XPS Pensions Group plc (XPS.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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