Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $198.05 - $525.37 | $302.84 |
| Multi-Stage | $135.33 - $147.87 | $141.49 |
| Blended Fair Value | $222.16 | |
| Current Price | $307.62 | |
| Upside | -27.78% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 8.31% | 23.81% | 1.84 | 1.72 | 1.60 | 1.48 | 1.36 | 1.23 | 1.11 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 7.01% | 7.43% | 8.25% | 8.98% | 9.91% | 10.71% | 11.92% | 24.45% | 99.82% | 84.23% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.79% | 0.64% | 0.93% | 0.80% | 0.80% | 1.14% | 0.93% | 0.87% | 0.66% | 0.38% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,122.70 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 256.20 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 866.50 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 224.54 | 140.34 | 84.20 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 866.50 | 866.50 | 866.50 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -224.54 | -140.34 | -84.20 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 641.96 | 726.16 | 782.30 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 132.98 | 132.98 | 132.98 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 4.83 | 5.46 | 5.88 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.93 | 1.93 | 1.93 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 4.83 | 5.46 | 5.88 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 6.75 | 7.39 | 7.81 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $198.05 | $302.84 | $525.37 |
| Upside / Downside | -35.62% | -1.55% | 70.79% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,122.70 | 1,195.68 | 1,273.39 | 1,356.17 | 1,444.32 | 1,538.20 | 1,584.34 |
| Payout Ratio | 22.82% | 36.26% | 49.69% | 63.13% | 76.56% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 256.20 | 433.50 | 632.78 | 856.12 | 1,105.83 | 1,384.38 | 1,465.52 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 393.62 | 397.35 | 401.08 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 521.70 | 531.64 | 541.67 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 640.90 | 659.30 | 678.05 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 751.68 | 780.58 | 810.32 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 854.45 | 895.72 | 938.57 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 14,833.16 | 15,549.60 | 16,293.47 |
| Equity Value (M) | 17,995.51 | 18,814.20 | 19,663.16 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 132.98 | 132.98 | 132.98 |
| Fair Value | $135.33 | $141.49 | $147.87 |
| Upside / Downside | -56.01% | -54.01% | -51.93% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GATX | GATX Corporation | 1.45% | $2.47 | 28.36% |
| SF | Stifel Financial Corp. | 1.45% | $1.86 | 30.82% |
| 0HFN.L | Analog Devices, Inc. | 1.44% | $3.90 | 84.88% |
| HAYN | Haynes International, Inc. | 1.44% | $0.88 | 30.16% |
| 0I58.L | Cummins Inc. | 1.43% | $7.42 | 38.53% |
| 0HRJ.L | CSX Corporation | 1.42% | $0.51 | 33.32% |
| OLED | Universal Display Corporation | 1.42% | $1.73 | 37.24% |
| BBW | Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. | 1.41% | $0.86 | 19.50% |
| LBC | Luther Burbank Corporation | 1.41% | $0.13 | 17.07% |
| SNDR | Schneider National, Inc. | 1.41% | $0.38 | 58.72% |
| 0R13.L | Church & Dwight Co., Inc. | 1.40% | $1.16 | 36.55% |
| COHN | Cohen & Company Inc. | 1.40% | $0.35 | 48.05% |
| HLI | Houlihan Lokey, Inc. | 1.40% | $2.48 | 39.81% |
| PATK | Patrick Industries, Inc. | 1.40% | $1.54 | 44.05% |
| CXT | Crane NXT, Co. | 1.39% | $0.66 | 24.82% |
| ESBA | Empire State Realty OP, L.P. | 1.39% | $0.09 | 49.94% |
| MMS | Maximus, Inc. | 1.39% | $1.21 | 21.54% |
| WYNN | Wynn Resorts, Limited | 1.39% | $1.70 | 34.98% |
| ATEN | A10 Networks, Inc. | 1.38% | $0.24 | 34.61% |
| HYAC | Haymaker Acquisition Corp. III | 1.38% | $0.16 | 37.41% |
| ISTR | Investar Holding Corporation | 1.38% | $0.36 | 18.11% |
| MCY | Mercury General Corporation | 1.38% | $1.27 | 16.00% |
| ACU | Acme United Corporation | 1.37% | $0.55 | 28.31% |
| DE | Deere & Company | 1.36% | $6.34 | 34.22% |
| HYAC-UN | Haymaker Acquisition Corp. 4 | 1.36% | $0.16 | 37.41% |
| RTX | RTX Corporation | 1.36% | $2.56 | 52.52% |
| 0HIN.L | Assurant, Inc. | 1.35% | $3.22 | 19.47% |
| AL | Air Lease Corporation | 1.35% | $0.86 | 9.51% |
| BGCP | BGC Partners, Inc. | 1.34% | $0.06 | 11.88% |
| ESRT | Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. | 1.34% | $0.09 | 49.94% |
| HUM | Humana Inc. | 1.34% | $3.55 | 33.23% |
| ZEUS | Olympic Steel, Inc. | 1.34% | $0.59 | 50.16% |
| 0K9L.L | Nucor Corporation | 1.33% | $2.22 | 31.04% |
| BY | Byline Bancorp, Inc. | 1.33% | $0.39 | 13.97% |
| LPX | Louisiana-Pacific Corporation | 1.33% | $1.09 | 35.19% |
| OPOF | Old Point Financial Corporation | 1.33% | $0.56 | 32.91% |
| WSM | Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | 1.33% | $2.50 | 27.85% |
| RUSHA | Rush Enterprises, Inc. | 1.32% | $0.71 | 21.15% |
| VLEOX | Value Line Small Cap Opportunities Fund, Inc. Investor Class | 1.32% | $0.79 | 56.29% |
| 0IW7.L | Global Payments Inc. | 1.31% | $1.01 | 13.82% |
| APO | Apollo Global Management, Inc. | 1.31% | $1.92 | 27.59% |
| EMP | Entergy Mississippi, Inc. 1M BD 66 | 1.31% | $0.27 | 6.72% |
| NDSN | Nordson Corporation | 1.31% | $3.15 | 36.67% |
| ROK | Rockwell Automation, Inc. | 1.31% | $5.23 | 68.01% |
| UMBF | UMB Financial Corporation | 1.31% | $1.52 | 18.87% |
| 0L3I.L | The Charles Schwab Corporation | 1.30% | $1.29 | 28.42% |
| 0R2X.L | Corning Incorporated | 1.30% | $1.15 | 72.69% |
| EBAY | eBay Inc. | 1.30% | $1.13 | 24.20% |
| GGG | Graco Inc. | 1.30% | $1.07 | 36.31% |
| HES | Hess Corporation | 1.30% | $1.94 | 26.90% |