DDM Analysis: TOTO.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$553.04 - $1,041.38	$751.28
Multi-Stage	$824.51 - $905.16	$864.06
Blended Fair Value	$807.67
Current Price	$224.00
Upside	260.57%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	13.89%	3.39%	20.04	18.19	16.22	9.54	2.86	10.46	17.10	7.61	11.40	11.17
YoY Growth	-	-	10.21%	12.12%	70.05%	233.76%	-72.68%	-38.82%	124.82%	-33.26%	2.07%	-22.26%
Dividend Yield	-	-	9.37%	8.34%	6.14%	4.22%	1.35%	5.23%	4.30%	2.03%	2.46%	1.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	376,436.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	135,925.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)	240,510.59

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	75,287.29	47,054.56	28,232.73
Cash Retained (M)	240,510.59	240,510.59	240,510.59
(-) Cash Required (M)	-75,287.29	-47,054.56	-28,232.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)	165,223.30	193,456.03	212,277.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	10,320.00	10,320.00	10,320.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	16.01	18.75	20.57
LTM Dividend per Share	13.17	13.17	13.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share	16.01	18.75	20.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend	29.18	31.92	33.74
WACC / Discount Rate	6.74%	6.74%	6.74%
Growth Rate	1.39%	2.39%	3.39%
Fair Value	$553.04	$751.28	$1,041.38
Upside / Downside	146.89%	235.39%	364.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	376,436.45	385,425.96	394,630.16	404,054.15	413,703.19	423,582.66	436,290.14
Payout Ratio	36.11%	46.89%	57.67%	68.44%	79.22%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	135,925.86	180,714.15	227,564.06	276,548.53	327,742.77	381,224.40	403,568.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.74%	6.74%	6.74%
Growth Rate	1.39%	2.39%	3.39%
Year 1 PV (M)	167,652.98	169,306.56	170,960.14
Year 2 PV (M)	195,858.28	199,740.87	203,661.57
Year 3 PV (M)	220,815.09	227,413.50	234,142.07
Year 4 PV (M)	242,778.17	252,498.99	262,508.84
Year 5 PV (M)	261,984.95	275,162.24	288,864.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,419,817.98	7,793,019.40	8,181,089.01
Equity Value (M)	8,508,907.45	8,917,141.57	9,341,226.15
Shares Outstanding (M)	10,320.00	10,320.00	10,320.00
Fair Value	$824.51	$864.06	$905.16
Upside / Downside	268.08%	285.74%	304.09%

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PT Surya Toto Indonesia Tbk (TOTO.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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