DDM Analysis: SMTO3.SA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$245.37 - $301.24	$282.30
Multi-Stage	$51.39 - $56.30	$53.80
Blended Fair Value	$168.05
Current Price	$17.36
Upside	868.04%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	12.11%	25.19%	1.23	1.23	1.13	2.44	0.57	0.69	0.54	0.30	0.17	0.20
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.19%	8.60%	-53.46%	330.43%	-18.43%	27.78%	80.00%	80.56%	-18.48%	57.67%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.99%	3.61%	3.32%	6.70%	1.57%	3.27%	2.73%	1.69%	0.97%	1.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	502.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	128.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)	373.60

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	100.44	62.78	37.67
Cash Retained (M)	373.60	373.60	373.60
(-) Cash Required (M)	-100.44	-62.78	-37.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)	273.15	310.82	335.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	331.55	331.55	331.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.82	0.94	1.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.39	0.39	0.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.82	0.94	1.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.21	1.33	1.40
WACC / Discount Rate	6.02%	6.02%	6.02%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$245.37	$282.30	$301.24
Upside / Downside	1,313.44%	1,526.17%	1,635.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	502.21	534.85	569.62	606.64	646.07	688.07	708.71
Payout Ratio	25.61%	38.49%	51.37%	64.24%	77.12%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	128.61	205.85	292.59	389.73	498.26	619.26	655.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.02%	6.02%	6.02%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	192.34	194.16	195.98
Year 2 PV (M)	255.43	260.30	265.21
Year 3 PV (M)	317.90	327.03	336.33
Year 4 PV (M)	379.75	394.36	409.38
Year 5 PV (M)	440.99	462.29	484.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)	15,453.00	16,199.39	16,974.34
Equity Value (M)	17,039.42	17,837.52	18,665.65
Shares Outstanding (M)	331.55	331.55	331.55
Fair Value	$51.39	$53.80	$56.30
Upside / Downside	196.04%	209.91%	224.29%

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São Martinho S.A. (SMTO3.SA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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