DDM Analysis: SCA-A.ST

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$26.03 - $35.76	$30.94
Multi-Stage	$83.07 - $91.87	$87.38
Blended Fair Value	$59.16
Current Price	$124.60
Upside	-52.52%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	9.46%	-5.94%	2.75	2.50	2.25	2.00	0.00	1.75	1.50	6.00	6.02	5.56
YoY Growth	-	-	9.97%	11.14%	12.46%	0.00%	-100.00%	16.60%	-74.99%	-0.33%	8.33%	9.51%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.10%	1.56%	1.63%	1.10%	0.00%	1.75%	1.63%	6.78%	9.67%	10.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,540.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,107.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,433.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	708.00	442.50	265.50
Cash Retained (M)	1,433.00	1,433.00	1,433.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-708.00	-442.50	-265.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)	725.00	990.50	1,167.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	702.16	702.16	702.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.03	1.41	1.66
LTM Dividend per Share	3.00	3.00	3.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.03	1.41	1.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend	4.03	4.41	4.66
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	-7.94%	-6.94%	-5.94%
Fair Value	$26.03	$30.94	$35.76
Upside / Downside	-79.11%	-75.17%	-71.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,540.00	3,294.17	3,065.41	2,852.53	2,654.44	2,470.10	2,544.20
Payout Ratio	59.52%	65.62%	71.71%	77.81%	83.90%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,107.00	2,161.49	2,198.26	2,219.49	2,227.18	2,223.09	2,353.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	-7.94%	-6.94%	-5.94%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,011.13	2,032.98	2,054.83
Year 2 PV (M)	1,903.06	1,944.63	1,986.65
Year 3 PV (M)	1,787.78	1,846.67	1,906.85
Year 4 PV (M)	1,669.17	1,742.89	1,819.03
Year 5 PV (M)	1,550.21	1,636.26	1,726.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)	49,407.18	52,149.67	55,012.62
Equity Value (M)	58,328.53	61,353.10	64,506.06
Shares Outstanding (M)	702.16	702.16	702.16
Fair Value	$83.07	$87.38	$91.87
Upside / Downside	-33.33%	-29.87%	-26.27%

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Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCA-A.ST)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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