DDM Analysis: ORS.MI

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$184.02 - $365.02	$342.08
Multi-Stage	$56.30 - $61.64	$58.92
Blended Fair Value	$200.50
Current Price	$13.96
Upside	1,336.22%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	41.42%	0.00%	0.69	0.37	0.30	0.21	0.00	0.12	0.12	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	88.12%	21.07%	48.49%	0.00%	-100.00%	2.95%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.79%	2.64%	2.27%	1.46%	0.00%	2.49%	1.63%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	31.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	10.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)	21.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	6.27	3.92	2.35
Cash Retained (M)	21.00	21.00	21.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-6.27	-3.92	-2.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)	14.73	17.08	18.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	17.08	17.08	17.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.86	1.00	1.09
LTM Dividend per Share	0.61	0.61	0.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.86	1.00	1.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.47	1.61	1.70
WACC / Discount Rate	6.34%	6.34%	6.34%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$184.02	$342.08	$365.02
Upside / Downside	1,218.18%	2,350.40%	2,514.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	31.35	33.39	35.56	37.87	40.33	42.95	44.24
Payout Ratio	33.02%	44.41%	55.81%	67.21%	78.60%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	10.35	14.83	19.85	25.45	31.70	38.66	40.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.34%	6.34%	6.34%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	13.81	13.94	14.08
Year 2 PV (M)	17.22	17.55	17.88
Year 3 PV (M)	20.57	21.16	21.77
Year 4 PV (M)	23.87	24.79	25.73
Year 5 PV (M)	27.12	28.43	29.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)	858.99	900.48	943.56
Equity Value (M)	961.59	1,006.36	1,052.80
Shares Outstanding (M)	17.08	17.08	17.08
Fair Value	$56.30	$58.92	$61.64
Upside / Downside	303.26%	322.04%	341.51%

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Orsero S.p.A. (ORS.MI)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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