DDM Analysis: NOVN.SW

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$81.71 - $134.36	$105.13
Multi-Stage	$171.40 - $188.45	$179.76
Blended Fair Value	$142.45
Current Price	$125.70
Upside	13.32%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	2.79%	1.14%	3.86	3.67	3.80	3.73	3.54	3.36	3.53	3.29	3.28	3.36
YoY Growth	-	-	5.09%	-3.34%	1.87%	5.45%	5.15%	-4.61%	7.25%	0.31%	-2.53%	-2.45%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.49%	3.88%	4.15%	4.24%	4.13%	4.06%	4.15%	4.59%	5.01%	5.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	14,393.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	7,818.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	6,575.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,878.60	1,799.13	1,079.48
Cash Retained (M)	6,575.00	6,575.00	6,575.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,878.60	-1,799.13	-1,079.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3,696.40	4,775.88	5,495.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,975.75	1,975.75	1,975.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.87	2.42	2.78
LTM Dividend per Share	3.96	3.96	3.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.87	2.42	2.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend	5.83	6.37	6.74
WACC / Discount Rate	6.30%	6.30%	6.30%
Growth Rate	-0.78%	0.22%	1.22%
Fair Value	$81.71	$105.13	$134.36
Upside / Downside	-34.99%	-16.36%	6.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	14,393.00	14,424.80	14,456.67	14,488.60	14,520.61	14,552.69	14,989.27
Payout Ratio	54.32%	61.45%	68.59%	75.73%	82.86%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	7,818.00	8,864.68	9,915.95	10,971.82	12,032.30	13,097.42	13,865.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.30%	6.30%	6.30%
Growth Rate	-0.78%	0.22%	1.22%
Year 1 PV (M)	8,256.29	8,339.51	8,422.72
Year 2 PV (M)	8,601.58	8,775.84	8,951.84
Year 3 PV (M)	8,864.31	9,135.03	9,411.22
Year 4 PV (M)	9,053.93	9,424.48	9,806.30
Year 5 PV (M)	9,179.01	9,650.99	10,142.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)	294,682.71	309,834.90	325,604.06
Equity Value (M)	338,637.83	355,160.74	372,338.31
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,975.75	1,975.75	1,975.75
Fair Value	$171.40	$179.76	$188.45
Upside / Downside	36.35%	43.01%	49.92%

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Novartis AG (NOVN.SW)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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