Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Neoenergia S.A. (NEOE3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$391.19 - $722.36$676.96
Multi-Stage$112.63 - $123.36$117.90
Blended Fair Value$397.43
Current Price$28.70
Upside1,284.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.08%11.57%0.771.100.770.490.370.570.440.020.050.20
YoY Growth---29.81%42.32%57.38%32.44%-35.49%30.54%2,433.80%-63.70%-75.94%-22.97%
Dividend Yield--3.69%5.38%5.15%2.85%2.23%3.34%2.60%0.10%0.28%1.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,408.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)937.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,471.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)881.60551.00330.60
Cash Retained (M)3,471.003,471.003,471.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-881.60-551.00-330.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,589.402,920.003,140.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,213.581,213.581,213.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.132.412.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.770.770.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.132.412.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.913.183.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$391.19$676.96$722.36
Upside / Downside1,263.01%2,258.74%2,416.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,408.004,694.524,999.665,324.645,670.746,039.346,220.52
Payout Ratio21.26%35.01%48.75%62.50%76.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)937.001,643.342,437.543,328.054,324.025,435.415,753.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,531.661,546.181,560.70
Year 2 PV (M)2,117.502,157.842,198.55
Year 3 PV (M)2,694.622,771.982,850.80
Year 4 PV (M)3,263.123,388.613,517.68
Year 5 PV (M)3,823.084,007.744,199.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)123,250.99129,204.06135,384.97
Equity Value (M)136,680.98143,076.40149,712.16
Shares Outstanding (M)1,213.581,213.581,213.58
Fair Value$112.63$117.90$123.36
Upside / Downside292.43%310.79%329.84%

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