DDM Analysis: MOTV3.SA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$28.70 - $66.44	$42.01
Multi-Stage	$39.17 - $43.00	$41.05
Blended Fair Value	$41.53
Current Price	$14.88
Upside	179.08%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-13.44%	-6.07%	0.37	0.19	0.38	0.14	0.48	0.76	0.60	0.63	0.62	0.52
YoY Growth	-	-	95.78%	-50.28%	179.48%	-71.71%	-36.86%	27.13%	-4.79%	1.80%	19.02%	-24.96%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.22%	1.45%	3.16%	1.09%	4.13%	7.49%	6.20%	6.64%	4.54%	5.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,891.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	972.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,919.50

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	578.34	361.46	216.88
Cash Retained (M)	1,919.50	1,919.50	1,919.50
(-) Cash Required (M)	-578.34	-361.46	-216.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,341.16	1,558.04	1,702.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,020.00	2,020.00	2,020.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.66	0.77	0.84
LTM Dividend per Share	0.48	0.48	0.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.66	0.77	0.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.15	1.25	1.32
WACC / Discount Rate	6.21%	6.21%	6.21%
Growth Rate	2.14%	3.14%	4.14%
Fair Value	$28.70	$42.01	$66.44
Upside / Downside	92.88%	182.29%	346.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,891.68	2,982.36	3,075.88	3,172.33	3,271.81	3,374.41	3,475.64
Payout Ratio	33.62%	44.90%	56.17%	67.45%	78.72%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	972.18	1,338.96	1,727.78	2,139.68	2,575.70	3,036.97	3,214.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.21%	6.21%	6.21%
Growth Rate	2.14%	3.14%	4.14%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,248.43	1,260.66	1,272.88
Year 2 PV (M)	1,502.05	1,531.61	1,561.45
Year 3 PV (M)	1,734.37	1,785.81	1,838.26
Year 4 PV (M)	1,946.64	2,024.01	2,103.66
Year 5 PV (M)	2,140.08	2,246.91	2,357.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)	70,547.89	74,069.82	77,731.02
Equity Value (M)	79,119.47	82,918.82	86,865.25
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,020.00	2,020.00	2,020.00
Fair Value	$39.17	$41.05	$43.00
Upside / Downside	163.23%	175.87%	189.00%

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Motiva S.A. (MOTV3.SA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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