Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $70.10 - $185.96 | $107.19 |
| Multi-Stage | $51.43 - $56.00 | $53.67 |
| Blended Fair Value | $80.43 | |
| Current Price | $71.32 | |
| Upside | 12.78% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -56.91% | -39.30% | 0.04 | 2.32 | 2.23 | 6.11 | 3.60 | 2.66 | 4.00 | 3.26 | 1.97 | 1.03 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -98.29% | 4.30% | -63.61% | 69.65% | 35.25% | -33.35% | 22.74% | 65.28% | 91.21% | -82.32% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.07% | 4.13% | 5.79% | 13.02% | 6.57% | 9.48% | 9.26% | 6.41% | 5.12% | 3.65% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 234.57 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 201.48 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 33.09 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 46.91 | 29.32 | 17.59 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 33.09 | 33.09 | 33.09 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -46.91 | -29.32 | -17.59 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -13.82 | 3.77 | 15.50 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 78.49 | 78.49 | 78.49 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.18 | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.57 | 2.57 | 2.57 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.18 | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.39 | 2.61 | 2.76 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $70.10 | $107.19 | $185.96 |
| Upside / Downside | -1.71% | 50.30% | 160.74% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 234.57 | 249.82 | 266.06 | 283.35 | 301.77 | 321.38 | 331.02 |
| Payout Ratio | 85.89% | 86.71% | 87.54% | 88.36% | 89.18% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 201.48 | 216.63 | 232.89 | 250.36 | 269.11 | 289.24 | 306.20 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 196.70 | 198.56 | 200.43 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 192.01 | 195.67 | 199.36 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 187.42 | 192.80 | 198.29 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 182.93 | 189.96 | 197.20 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 178.52 | 187.15 | 196.10 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 3,099.16 | 3,248.85 | 3,404.27 |
| Equity Value (M) | 4,036.74 | 4,213.00 | 4,395.64 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 78.49 | 78.49 | 78.49 |
| Fair Value | $51.43 | $53.67 | $56.00 |
| Upside / Downside | -27.89% | -24.74% | -21.48% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GATX | GATX Corporation | 1.45% | $2.47 | 28.36% |
| SF | Stifel Financial Corp. | 1.45% | $1.86 | 30.82% |
| 0HFN.L | Analog Devices, Inc. | 1.44% | $3.90 | 84.88% |
| HAYN | Haynes International, Inc. | 1.44% | $0.88 | 30.16% |
| 0I58.L | Cummins Inc. | 1.43% | $7.42 | 38.53% |
| 0HRJ.L | CSX Corporation | 1.42% | $0.51 | 33.32% |
| OLED | Universal Display Corporation | 1.42% | $1.73 | 37.24% |
| BBW | Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. | 1.41% | $0.86 | 19.50% |
| LBC | Luther Burbank Corporation | 1.41% | $0.13 | 17.07% |
| SNDR | Schneider National, Inc. | 1.41% | $0.38 | 58.72% |
| 0R13.L | Church & Dwight Co., Inc. | 1.40% | $1.16 | 36.55% |
| COHN | Cohen & Company Inc. | 1.40% | $0.35 | 48.05% |
| HLI | Houlihan Lokey, Inc. | 1.40% | $2.48 | 39.81% |
| PATK | Patrick Industries, Inc. | 1.40% | $1.54 | 44.05% |
| CXT | Crane NXT, Co. | 1.39% | $0.66 | 24.82% |
| ESBA | Empire State Realty OP, L.P. | 1.39% | $0.09 | 49.94% |
| MMS | Maximus, Inc. | 1.39% | $1.21 | 21.54% |
| WYNN | Wynn Resorts, Limited | 1.39% | $1.70 | 34.98% |
| ATEN | A10 Networks, Inc. | 1.38% | $0.24 | 34.61% |
| HYAC | Haymaker Acquisition Corp. III | 1.38% | $0.16 | 37.41% |
| ISTR | Investar Holding Corporation | 1.38% | $0.36 | 18.11% |
| MCY | Mercury General Corporation | 1.38% | $1.27 | 16.00% |
| ACU | Acme United Corporation | 1.37% | $0.55 | 28.31% |
| DE | Deere & Company | 1.36% | $6.34 | 34.22% |
| HYAC-UN | Haymaker Acquisition Corp. 4 | 1.36% | $0.16 | 37.41% |
| RTX | RTX Corporation | 1.36% | $2.56 | 52.52% |
| 0HIN.L | Assurant, Inc. | 1.35% | $3.22 | 19.47% |
| AL | Air Lease Corporation | 1.35% | $0.86 | 9.51% |
| BGCP | BGC Partners, Inc. | 1.34% | $0.06 | 11.88% |
| ESRT | Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. | 1.34% | $0.09 | 49.94% |
| HUM | Humana Inc. | 1.34% | $3.55 | 33.23% |
| ZEUS | Olympic Steel, Inc. | 1.34% | $0.59 | 50.16% |
| 0K9L.L | Nucor Corporation | 1.33% | $2.22 | 31.04% |
| BY | Byline Bancorp, Inc. | 1.33% | $0.39 | 13.97% |
| LPX | Louisiana-Pacific Corporation | 1.33% | $1.09 | 35.19% |
| OPOF | Old Point Financial Corporation | 1.33% | $0.56 | 32.91% |
| WSM | Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | 1.33% | $2.50 | 27.85% |
| RUSHA | Rush Enterprises, Inc. | 1.32% | $0.71 | 21.15% |
| VLEOX | Value Line Small Cap Opportunities Fund, Inc. Investor Class | 1.32% | $0.79 | 56.29% |
| 0IW7.L | Global Payments Inc. | 1.31% | $1.01 | 13.82% |
| APO | Apollo Global Management, Inc. | 1.31% | $1.92 | 27.59% |
| EMP | Entergy Mississippi, Inc. 1M BD 66 | 1.31% | $0.27 | 6.72% |
| NDSN | Nordson Corporation | 1.31% | $3.15 | 36.67% |
| ROK | Rockwell Automation, Inc. | 1.31% | $5.23 | 68.01% |
| UMBF | UMB Financial Corporation | 1.31% | $1.52 | 18.87% |
| 0L3I.L | The Charles Schwab Corporation | 1.30% | $1.29 | 28.42% |
| 0R2X.L | Corning Incorporated | 1.30% | $1.15 | 72.69% |
| EBAY | eBay Inc. | 1.30% | $1.13 | 24.20% |
| GGG | Graco Inc. | 1.30% | $1.07 | 36.31% |
| HES | Hess Corporation | 1.30% | $1.94 | 26.90% |