DDM Analysis: MACF.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.25 - $24.36	$9.25
Multi-Stage	$3.25 - $3.56	$3.40
Blended Fair Value	$6.33
Current Price	$1.18
Upside	436.08%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	9.28%	11.78%	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	4.85%	7.49%	18.84%	288.51%	-70.05%	8.92%	18.68%	21.03%	12.61%	10.91%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.33%	2.93%	3.07%	2.06%	0.79%	2.13%	2.96%	2.29%	2.42%	2.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	26.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	11.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)	15.15

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	5.34	3.34	2.00
Cash Retained (M)	15.15	15.15	15.15
(-) Cash Required (M)	-5.34	-3.34	-2.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)	9.81	11.81	13.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	159.99	159.99	159.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.07	0.08
LTM Dividend per Share	0.07	0.07	0.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.07	0.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.13	0.15	0.15
WACC / Discount Rate	8.18%	8.18%	8.18%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$5.25	$9.25	$24.36
Upside / Downside	345.11%	683.82%	1,964.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	26.69	28.43	30.28	32.24	34.34	36.57	37.67
Payout Ratio	43.25%	52.60%	61.95%	71.30%	80.65%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	11.55	14.95	18.76	22.99	27.70	32.91	34.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.18%	8.18%	8.18%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	13.69	13.82	13.95
Year 2 PV (M)	15.73	16.03	16.33
Year 3 PV (M)	17.65	18.16	18.68
Year 4 PV (M)	19.47	20.22	20.99
Year 5 PV (M)	21.19	22.21	23.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)	432.99	453.90	475.61
Equity Value (M)	520.72	544.35	568.84
Shares Outstanding (M)	159.99	159.99	159.99
Fair Value	$3.25	$3.40	$3.56
Upside / Downside	175.82%	188.33%	201.31%

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Macfarlane Group PLC (MACF.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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