DDM Analysis: KPG.AX

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$38.75 - $57.97	$54.32
Multi-Stage	$9.44 - $10.34	$9.88
Blended Fair Value	$32.10
Current Price	$10.77
Upside	198.06%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	51.38%	0.00%	0.42	0.03	0.09	0.07	0.04	0.05	0.15	0.03	0.08	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	1,109.84%	-59.38%	26.87%	57.20%	-18.90%	-64.22%	391.19%	-61.53%	127.10%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.93%	0.42%	1.94%	1.75%	1.27%	6.05%	17.93%	2.46%	5.55%	2.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	13.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)	11.56

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2.63	1.64	0.98
Cash Retained (M)	11.56	11.56	11.56
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2.63	-1.64	-0.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)	8.93	9.91	10.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	45.05	45.05	45.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.20	0.22	0.23
LTM Dividend per Share	0.03	0.03	0.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.20	0.22	0.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.23	0.26	0.27
WACC / Discount Rate	6.13%	6.13%	6.13%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$38.75	$54.32	$57.97
Upside / Downside	259.82%	404.38%	438.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	13.13	13.98	14.89	15.86	16.89	17.99	18.53
Payout Ratio	12.00%	27.60%	43.20%	58.80%	74.40%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1.58	3.86	6.43	9.33	12.57	16.19	17.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.13%	6.13%	6.13%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	3.60	3.64	3.67
Year 2 PV (M)	5.61	5.71	5.82
Year 3 PV (M)	7.58	7.80	8.02
Year 4 PV (M)	9.54	9.90	10.28
Year 5 PV (M)	11.47	12.02	12.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)	387.30	406.00	425.42
Equity Value (M)	425.09	445.08	465.82
Shares Outstanding (M)	45.05	45.05	45.05
Fair Value	$9.44	$9.88	$10.34
Upside / Downside	-12.39%	-8.27%	-4.00%

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Kelly Partners Group Holdings Limited (KPG.AX)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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