DDM Analysis: JDW.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$160.85 - $189.51	$177.60
Multi-Stage	$37.01 - $40.57	$38.76
Blended Fair Value	$108.18
Current Price	$6.25
Upside	1,630.82%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	18.38%	2.92%	0.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.07	0.10	0.10	0.11	0.12
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-33.84%	-0.02%	-5.22%	-5.91%	-2.75%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.81%	0.67%	0.85%	1.07%	1.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	116.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	19.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)	97.32

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	23.36	14.60	8.76
Cash Retained (M)	97.32	97.32	97.32
(-) Cash Required (M)	-23.36	-14.60	-8.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)	73.96	82.72	88.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	122.55	122.55	122.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.60	0.67	0.72
LTM Dividend per Share	0.16	0.16	0.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.60	0.67	0.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.76	0.83	0.88
WACC / Discount Rate	5.64%	5.64%	5.64%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$160.85	$177.60	$189.51
Upside / Downside	2,473.59%	2,741.54%	2,932.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	116.78	124.37	132.45	141.06	150.23	159.99	164.79
Payout Ratio	16.66%	31.33%	46.00%	60.67%	75.33%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	19.46	38.97	60.93	85.57	113.17	143.99	152.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.64%	5.64%	5.64%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	36.54	36.88	37.23
Year 2 PV (M)	53.57	54.59	55.62
Year 3 PV (M)	70.56	72.58	74.65
Year 4 PV (M)	87.50	90.86	94.33
Year 5 PV (M)	104.39	109.44	114.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,183.12	4,385.17	4,594.95
Equity Value (M)	4,535.69	4,749.53	4,971.45
Shares Outstanding (M)	122.55	122.55	122.55
Fair Value	$37.01	$38.76	$40.57
Upside / Downside	492.18%	520.10%	549.08%

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J D Wetherspoon plc (JDW.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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