DDM Analysis: HOLN.SW

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$447.48 - $875.96	$616.93
Multi-Stage	$694.73 - $763.86	$728.63
Blended Fair Value	$672.78
Current Price	$58.90
Upside	1,042.24%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	37.28%	13.99%	2.83	2.55	2.40	2.20	2.20	0.58	2.15	2.18	1.64	0.76
YoY Growth	-	-	11.03%	6.32%	8.84%	-0.16%	280.12%	-72.99%	-1.65%	33.33%	114.39%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.99%	3.17%	4.07%	4.86%	3.97%	1.64%	4.27%	4.17%	2.77%	1.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	15,419.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,714.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	13,705.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3,083.80	1,927.38	1,156.43
Cash Retained (M)	13,705.00	13,705.00	13,705.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3,083.80	-1,927.38	-1,156.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)	10,621.20	11,777.63	12,548.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	555.17	555.17	555.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share	19.13	21.21	22.60
LTM Dividend per Share	3.09	3.09	3.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	19.13	21.21	22.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend	22.22	24.30	25.69
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	1.29%	2.29%	3.29%
Fair Value	$447.48	$616.93	$875.96
Upside / Downside	659.72%	947.41%	1,387.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	15,419.00	15,771.64	16,132.34	16,501.30	16,878.69	17,264.71	17,782.65
Payout Ratio	11.12%	26.89%	42.67%	58.45%	74.22%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,714.00	4,241.45	6,883.62	9,644.42	12,527.91	15,538.24	16,448.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	1.29%	2.29%	3.29%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,950.47	3,989.47	4,028.47
Year 2 PV (M)	5,971.51	6,090.00	6,209.66
Year 3 PV (M)	7,792.50	8,025.59	8,263.29
Year 4 PV (M)	9,427.85	9,805.72	10,194.84
Year 5 PV (M)	10,891.04	11,439.40	12,009.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)	347,660.99	365,165.40	383,367.88
Equity Value (M)	385,694.36	404,515.58	424,073.76
Shares Outstanding (M)	555.17	555.17	555.17
Fair Value	$694.73	$728.63	$763.86
Upside / Downside	1,079.50%	1,137.06%	1,196.87%

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Holcim Ltd (HOLN.SW)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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