DDM Analysis: HMC.AX

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$142.70 - $286.72	$268.70
Multi-Stage	$43.47 - $47.63	$45.51
Blended Fair Value	$157.10
Current Price	$5.10
Upside	2,980.44%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
DPS	84.63%	0.00%	0.51	0.11	0.10	0.09	0.10	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	357.18%	15.91%	3.53%	-5.09%	312.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	9.94%	1.58%	1.89%	2.05%	1.79%	0.86%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	543.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	64.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)	479.02

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	108.70	67.94	40.76
Cash Retained (M)	479.02	479.02	479.02
(-) Cash Required (M)	-108.70	-67.94	-40.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)	370.31	411.08	438.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	377.00	377.00	377.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.98	1.09	1.16
LTM Dividend per Share	0.17	0.17	0.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.98	1.09	1.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.15	1.26	1.33
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$142.70	$268.70	$286.72
Upside / Downside	2,698.03%	5,168.54%	5,521.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	543.52	578.85	616.47	656.54	699.22	744.67	767.01
Payout Ratio	11.87%	27.49%	43.12%	58.75%	74.37%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	64.50	159.15	265.82	385.70	520.03	670.20	709.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	148.23	149.64	151.05
Year 2 PV (M)	230.62	235.02	239.45
Year 3 PV (M)	311.68	320.63	329.74
Year 4 PV (M)	391.42	406.48	421.96
Year 5 PV (M)	469.87	492.56	516.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)	14,836.04	15,552.63	16,296.64
Equity Value (M)	16,387.87	17,156.95	17,954.97
Shares Outstanding (M)	377.00	377.00	377.00
Fair Value	$43.47	$45.51	$47.63
Upside / Downside	752.34%	792.34%	833.84%

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HMC Capital Limited (HMC.AX)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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