DDM Analysis: GMTD.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$196.03 - $291.66	$241.60
Multi-Stage	$252.16 - $276.62	$264.16
Blended Fair Value	$252.88
Current Price	$2,520.00
Upside	-89.97%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	2.83%	-7.47%	2.30	0.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.00	1.60	2.50	4.50	6.50
YoY Growth	-	-	666.67%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	25.00%	-36.00%	-44.44%	-30.77%	30.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.10%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.11%	0.08%	0.19%	0.85%	0.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	23,911.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,335.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)	21,576.56

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	4,782.39	2,988.99	1,793.39
Cash Retained (M)	21,576.56	21,576.56	21,576.56
(-) Cash Required (M)	-4,782.39	-2,988.99	-1,793.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)	16,794.17	18,587.56	19,783.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,015.38	1,015.38	1,015.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share	16.54	18.31	19.48
LTM Dividend per Share	2.30	2.30	2.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share	16.54	18.31	19.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend	18.84	20.61	21.78
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	0.35%	1.35%	2.35%
Fair Value	$196.03	$241.60	$291.66
Upside / Downside	-92.22%	-90.41%	-88.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	23,911.93	24,235.94	24,564.33	24,897.18	25,234.53	25,576.46	26,343.75
Payout Ratio	9.77%	25.81%	41.86%	57.91%	73.95%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,335.37	6,256.08	10,282.61	14,417.12	18,661.77	23,018.81	24,367.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	0.35%	1.35%	2.35%
Year 1 PV (M)	5,631.25	5,687.36	5,743.48
Year 2 PV (M)	8,331.21	8,498.08	8,666.59
Year 3 PV (M)	10,514.42	10,831.88	11,155.67
Year 4 PV (M)	12,250.74	12,746.39	13,256.92
Year 5 PV (M)	13,601.75	14,293.07	15,012.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)	205,708.57	216,163.92	227,040.13
Equity Value (M)	256,037.95	268,220.70	280,875.01
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,015.38	1,015.38	1,015.38
Fair Value	$252.16	$264.16	$276.62
Upside / Downside	-89.99%	-89.52%	-89.02%

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PT Gowa Makassar Tourism Development Tbk (GMTD.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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