DDM Analysis: GCARSOA1.MX

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$81.90 - $154.89	$111.43
Multi-Stage	$62.22 - $67.93	$65.02
Blended Fair Value	$88.23
Current Price	$133.76
Upside	-34.04%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	7.04%	5.91%	1.77	0.80	1.11	1.05	0.35	1.26	1.24	0.68	1.44	1.18
YoY Growth	-	-	121.44%	-28.11%	5.92%	200.84%	-72.30%	1.96%	82.33%	-52.86%	21.92%	18.26%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.49%	0.54%	1.24%	1.41%	0.62%	2.71%	1.66%	1.07%	1.67%	1.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	11,616.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,767.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)	9,849.33

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,323.28	1,452.05	871.23
Cash Retained (M)	9,849.33	9,849.33	9,849.33
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,323.28	-1,452.05	-871.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)	7,526.05	8,397.28	8,978.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,256.92	2,256.92	2,256.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share	3.33	3.72	3.98
LTM Dividend per Share	0.78	0.78	0.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share	3.33	3.72	3.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend	4.12	4.50	4.76
WACC / Discount Rate	10.80%	10.80%	10.80%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$81.90	$111.43	$154.89
Upside / Downside	-38.77%	-16.69%	15.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	11,616.41	12,371.48	13,175.62	14,032.04	14,944.12	15,915.49	16,392.96
Payout Ratio	15.21%	30.17%	45.13%	60.08%	75.04%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,767.08	3,732.42	5,945.79	8,431.12	11,214.43	14,323.94	15,163.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.80%	10.80%	10.80%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,336.85	3,368.48	3,400.11
Year 2 PV (M)	4,752.27	4,842.78	4,934.16
Year 3 PV (M)	6,024.52	6,197.46	6,373.68
Year 4 PV (M)	7,164.07	7,439.58	7,722.96
Year 5 PV (M)	8,180.71	8,575.84	8,986.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)	110,965.00	116,324.65	121,889.43
Equity Value (M)	140,423.42	146,748.80	153,306.44
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,256.92	2,256.92	2,256.92
Fair Value	$62.22	$65.02	$67.93
Upside / Downside	-53.48%	-51.39%	-49.22%

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Grupo Carso, S.A.B. de C.V. (GCARSOA1.MX)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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